Few teams have been able to slow down Marshawn Lynch this season, but when they have the Seahawks have been vulnerable. The Panthers defense is surging, but can it stave off Beast Mode?
If I said the most important factor that will determine who wins this weekend's playoff game between the Panthers and Seahawks will be whether the Panthers can keep Marshawn Lynch from rushing for 60 or more yards, you would probably let out a resounding, DUH! once you stop laughing,
Everyone knows that Lynch is the heartbeat of that Seahawks offense (and to a certain extent, the whole team). Stopping him should be priority No. 1 every week for all of their opponents. There's also the fact that Lynch has only rushed for fewer than 60 yards three times this season. It's also a little laughable that a Panthers defense -- middle of the pack during the regular season against the run, giving up an average of 112 yards a game on the ground -- would be able to shut down Lynch.
That's exactly what they are going to have to do if they want to go to Seattle and beat the Seahawks in their own house. Fair or unfair, possible or not, them's the breaks. It's worth noting, however, that two of those three times that teams managed to keep Lynch under 60 yards on the ground just so happen to be two of the four games the Seahawks lost. Unrealistic or not, it shows that if the Panthers can pull it off, they'll almost assuredly win the game.
Another reason the Panthers have to limit Lynch on the ground is that if he isn't getting good yardage on first and second down, the Seahawks will find themselves in a lot of third-and-long situations. Say what you want about their run defense, but the Panthers' pass defense has been coming on strong of late, finishing 11th in the NFL in the regular season. A major part of their recent success has been the resurgence of left defensive end Charles Johnson. He's been about as dominant rushing the passer in the past few games as I have ever seen him. I'm talking about 5.5 sacks in his last six games, including two in the Panthers' win over the Cardinals last weekend. I know Wilson is a slippery as they come, but I have a feeling Johnson is going to be all over him this Saturday.
I don't trust Seattle's passing game when they have to convert on third-and-long. With Golden Tate now in Detroit and Percy Harvin traded to the Jets and several injuries at the tight end position, I just don't think the Seahawks scare anybody when they line up facing third-and-7 or more. It doesn't matter how shaky the Panthers have looked on offense at times this season, the Seahawks are still going to have to score to to win this game. If they have to throw down the field a lot, I don't think it's going to work out well against that opportunistic Panthers' pass defense.
Yes, Russell Wilson can make things happen with his legs, but one thing about the Panthers defense is that it plays a lot of zone where it can keep eyes on Wilson and react if he takes off to run. I'm sure most teams play a lot of zone against the Seahawks for the very same reason, but the Panthers really have their zone coverage down pat on the back end. They know where they are strongest and weakest, and they know how to recognize route combinations. They are supremely equipped to cover down field and rally up when Wilson starts to scramble because nobody is open. Most defenses can only pull off maybe one of the two consistently, if that.
If the Panthers can force the Seahawks into a bunch of third-and-long situations, then the individual matchups between Wilson and middle linebacker Luke Kuechly will worth the price of admission all by themselves.
But ...
The Panthers have to put the Seahawks in that position, and that goes back to being able to limit the damage Lynch inflicts running the ball. Maybe keeping him to under 60 yards is a little too unrealistic, so I will spot the Panthers an extra 10 yards and say if they can keep Lynch under 70 yards on the ground, they will have their best opportunity to win that game. The chips are already stacked against them considering the Seahawks' record at home over the last few seasons as well as the fact that they have had another week to rest and prepare for them. But at least there is a way the Panthers pulling off the upset.
If Lynch does get 70 yards or more, well, the reigning world champions will be one step closer to quest for back-to-back championships when its all said and done.
It's really as simple as that.
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