Some players made a leap forward after a promising rookie year, while others took a step backwards. We look at the disappointments of 2014 and examine their prospects for next season.
Fantasy owners get really excited about good rookie seasons. There are several reasons for that -- the rookies not only reward you for your waiver-wire savvy, but they promise bigger things for the next season with a year of NFL experience under their belt. This is the kind of potential that gets keeper/dynasty owners weak in the knees.
Unfortunately, not every player delivers on a promising rookie year. Some of them take a big step backward, making you curse that high draft pick you spent on them. We're here to take a look at those second-year players who disappointed, and analyze their prospects for the 2015 season.
Running backs
Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
August ADP: late 1st-early 2nd round
Before the season, Ball was the preordained lead back in a Peyton Manning offense, which had fantasy owners buzzing. Why wouldn't they after Knowshon Moreno had a career year in the same system? Unfortunately, Ball's sophomore campaign was a complete wash. After an uninspiring start in which he averaged just 3.1 yards per carry in the first four games, Ball suffered a groin injury in Week 5 that effectively ended his season. He tried to make a comeback, only to aggravate the injury in Week 11. In the meantime, C.J. Anderson grabbed the starting job and never looked back.
2015 prognosis: Competing with Ronnie Hillman for change-of-pace duties. With a new coaching staff and Manning's future up in the air, Ball's role is more unsettled than ever.
Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams
August ADP: early 3rd round
The Rams have had a bizarre running theme of late: A rookie running back shows promise in the lead role, only to be supplanted in his second year by another rookie. It happened to Daryl Richardson in 2013, and now Stacy is the new victim, with Tre Mason winning the starting role down the stretch. Stacy was completely written out of the game plan, seeing just 21 touches between Weeks 7-17.
2015 prognosis: On the outside looking in with Benny Cunningham entrenched as the pass-catching specialist. Stacy's roster spot isn't a sure thing.
Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals
August ADP: Early 3rd round
All signs were pointing up with Ellington's fantasy potential. He had the starting job to himself after the unexpected retirement of Rashard Mendenhall and head coach Bruce Arians planned to build the whole offense around him. That all came crashing down in Week 1, when Ellington suffered a foot injury he never really recovered from all year. Ellington tried playing through the injury, but was clearly less than 100 percent -- he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, a sharp drop from his 5.5 average in 2013. A hernia eventually ended his season after Week 13.
2015 prognosis: Ellington should be ready for training camp, but at 5'9 and 199 pounds, he's just not built for a workhorse role. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals trot out a committee backfield after Kerwynn Williams impressed in spot duty.
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
August ADP: 2nd round
Bernard's season wasn't quite a disappointment, but his production isn't what fantasy owners wanted out of their high draft pick. Banged up with various injuries and scuffling in the lead back role, Bernard eventually took a backseat to rookie Jeremy Hill. He settled in as the pass-catching back, recording 1,029 total yards and seven touchdowns on 211 touches. Bernard is still a game-breaking talent in the open field, but he wasn't quite up to par between the tackles. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson wisely spotted that deficiency and gave Hill the bigger workload down the stretch.
2015 prognosis: Still a valuable asset in PPR leagues, but more of a flex play in standard formats. Now that Bernard has a clearly defined role, fantasy owners should adjust expectations accordingly. In other words, don't draft him in the second round again.
Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints
August ADP: 10th-11th round
Robinson got a chance to shine when Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas went down with injuries. He responded well with 245 rushing yards and a touchdown between Weeks 3-5. An arm injury in Week 7 derailed his season, and once Ingram and Thomas came back healthy there wasn't a real place for him in the offense.
2015 prognosis: With Ingram set for free agency and Thomas a possible casualty of the Saints' cap crunch, Robinson could be set for bigger things next season. He'll be near the top of many sleeper lists when August rolls around.
Wide receivers
Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings
August ADP: 4th round
Patterson is an electric athlete who had countless highlight-reel plays toward the end of 2013, and many people rightfully assumed he would ascend to greater heights in Norv Turner's offense. We all know how that worked out. Patterson showed little signs of growth as a sophomore, and eventually got lost in the shuffle when Charles Johnson shot up the depth chart. You could argue he was poorly used and didn't get put into the best positions, but at some point, Patterson has to create his own looks and earn the trust of promising rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He failed on that account.
2015 prognosis: He still has time to learn the position and could make that third-year leap like some receivers do, but fantasy owners can't draft on hopes and dreams. Patterson should be hands-off until he shows real progress in training camp and preseason.
Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans
August ADP: 10th-11th round
Speaking of athletic talents who couldn't grasp the wide receiver position ... Hunter was more of a wild card than Patterson based on his draft position, but he certainly had the tools to be a fantasy asset as a deep-threat specialist with the big arms of either Jake Locker or Zach Mettenberger. Unfortunately, Hunter couldn't put it together and was partly to blame for the Titans' dysfunctional offense. A lacerated spleen ended his year early, and he goes into the offseason with more questions than answers.
2015 prognosis: With the Titans' quarterback situation unsettled, Hunter can't be relied on in fantasy drafts.
Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys
August ADP: 12th-13th round
Williams certainly had a nose for the end zone, hauling in eight touchdowns this season. The downside was that when he didn't find the end zone, Williams was useless in fantasy. He finished the year with just 37 catches for 621 yards, not the kind of numbers you'd expect from the No. 2 receiver in an offense where Dez Bryant gets all the attention.
2015 prognosis: Probably more of the same unless the Cowboys somehow lose Bryant in free agency. Williams is what he is, and that doesn't make him an enticing every-week starter in fantasy.
Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers
August ADP: Late 3rd round
The sky was the limit after Allen tore the house down in his rookie year, and his final 2014 numbers don't look all that different from 2013. It's how he got there that had fantasy owners frustrated. Allen had a long drought to start the season, reaching 100 receiving yards only once between Weeks 1-11 and not scoring a single touchdown until Week 8. He finally got hot toward the end until a collarbone injury ended his season early.
2015 prognosis: Still a talented route runner and easy No. 1 option for Philip Rivers, but Allen may be more of a WR3 than the WR1 many people were expecting.
Tight ends
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
August ADP: 14th round
All the pieces were in place for Eifert to usurp the uninspiring Jermaine Gresham and put his name on the fantasy map. However, a dislocated elbow in Week 1 ended his season before it really began.
2015 prognosis: Eifert should be 100 percent by training camp and Gresham is scheduled for free agency. In addition, Hue Jackson should return as offensive coordinator after not getting much buzz in the head coaching rumor mill. If Eifert is healthy, he will be a top sleeper pick for savvy fantasy players.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
August ADP: 9th-10th round
Ertz is another player who seemed to have the right situation -- a talented athlete in a Chip Kelly offense, with Brent Celek as a seemingly small obstacle. Ertz never got to that next level, though. Celek was needed as a reliable blocker with myriad injuries on the offensive line, and Ertz was left in the wind as a result. He still got a late-season chance to shine, grabbing 15 catches for 115 yards in Week 16.
2015 prognosis: That Week 16 performance will have a lot of fantasy players buying high in such a thin tight end market, but with Celek still in the mix, it's hard to tell. He's a late-round flier at this point.
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