When the average score is low, the good scores look so much better.
Week 15 was horrible in a lot of ways. Among quarterbacks who either started or played significant minutes, 16 guys had single-digit fantasy points, bottoming out with the Johnny Manziel-Andy Dalton abomination they played in Cleveland.
What that means is that a lot of fantasy playoff matchups were ... well, maybe not lost, since everyone had bad games. Let's just say fantasy playoff matchups were a bunch of low-scoring affairs.
I'll use my semifinal matchup as an example. I was projected to put up 126 points this week, compared to my opponent's projection of 139. With Jimmy Graham yet to go, I'm stuck at 98, and even that was only on the back of Odell Beckham Jr. (love him so much). My quarterback put up six. My two non-Beckham receivers combined for 10.
Yet I'm winning. My opponent, with Martellus Bennett going Monday night, is stuck at 82, with disappointments from Andrew Luck, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton and LeGarrette Blount. It's not that you can't win when your team lays an egg. It's just that you need a whole lot more eggs to be laid as well.
But what it also means is that the big performances -- like Beckham's -- matter that much more. If 20 guys score 25 fantasy points, you need huge performances just to keep up. If three guys do it? You get one of those, and you win your week.
So who won Week 15 for you? Here we go:
Best quarterbacks in Week 15
Eli Manning, NYG (250 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 22 fantasy points)
See what I mean? Manning had 22 fantasy points and appears here; last week 11 quarterbacks had at least as many 22 fantasy points. Still, the best is the best, and Manning had the benefit of throwing the ball to Odell Beckham Jr. all day, which is a situation where I could put up a handful of points if pressed. Manning's had a wildly up-and-down season, with nearly as many single-digit fantasy days as 20-plus ones, but at least you know he has the big games in him.
Next game: The Giants travel to the Rams next week, a much better defense than the Washington one Eli just faced. On top of that, you'd have to figure the rest of everyone will play better next week. Manning's a one-week wonder in this space.
Matt Ryan, ATL (310 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 27 rushing yards, 20 fantasy points)
The last three weeks, Ryan has averaged almost 24 fantasy points a game, with at least 20 in all three. It's good, if not world-beating, but seeing as how he didn't reach 20 points in a game even once from Week 4 to Week 12, it's a nice late-season surge. To top it off, Ryan had this game in the absence of Julio Jones, usually a bad sign for the quarterback. Maybe Ryan's getting better.
Next game: At New Orleans next week in a battle of division "heavyweights," Ryan looks like a decent play against a bad defense.
Alex Smith, KC (297 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards, 20 fantasy points)
Sunday was Smith's second time with 20-plus fantasy points all year (he had 21 in Week 4), which does more to illustrate his general struggles this year than it does hype his Week 15 performance. The best thing you can say about Smith (and this has been true forever) is that he protects the ball; since three interceptions in an inexplicable Week 1 loss to Tennessee, Smith has thrown for 17 touchdowns against only three picks. But he just isn't dynamic enough (no touchdown passes to a wide receiver in more than a year) to really be interesting for fantasy.
Next game: The Chiefs play at Pittsburgh next week. The Steelers have allowed plenty of fantasy points to quarterbacks of late, so Smith has potential, but it's hard to imagine anyone investing in him if they have a realistic choice.
Tony Romo, DAL (265 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, -1 rushing yard, 1 fumble lost, 20 fantasy points)
Romo missed one game with his back injury. Since then, he's played five games, and has 20 or more fantasy points in four of them. All told, he's averaging 17.8 fantasy points a game since his injury, and has six games of 20-plus all year; the only quarterbacks with more than that are Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. Romo's been great.
Next game: The Cowboys host the Colts next week. Romo will easily be a mid-level QB1.
Best running backs in Week 15
Jeremy Hill, CIN (148 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 receiving yards, 26 fantasy points)
Johnny Manziel was terrible Sunday, but it's not like Andy Dalton (117 yards and a pick) was really much better. Meanwhile, the Cleveland running backs couldn't get anything going, but Hill and Giovani Bernard combined for 227 rushing yards on 40 rushes, good for 5.7 yards a carry. That, more than then quarterbacks, was the reason the Bengals crushed the Browns Sunday. Hill was the bellcow, with 26 touches to Bernard's 18. The last time Bernard had more carries than Hill was Week 8, so ... looks like the team has made its choice.
Next game: The Bengals host the Broncos Monday night. Denver has a strong run defense, so Hill's going to get dinged a little in rankings, but he's still an interesting RB2.
Le'Veon Bell, PIT (47 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 72 receiving yards, 23 fantasy points)
The last four games, Bell has averaged 30.3 fantasy points a game. That's 30 points a game over a month. That's 30 points in one game, then another, then another, then another, with another full point left over to donate to charity. I can find lots of ways to say good things about Le'Veon Bell, but the fact that this game -- the second-best by a running back this week -- is his worst in the last month says more than enough.
Next game: The Steelers host the Chiefs next week, though I can't see how it matters; there's no team that would make me have Bell ranked lower than, say, third or fourth.
Knile Davis, KC (11 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 70 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, 20 fantasy points)
Davis' fantasy day is colored by one play, late in the third quarter, in which the Chiefs had third-and-11 and threw a short pass to Davis, only for the Raiders to apparently decide playing defense was optional; that was Davis' only reception on the day, but he took it 70 yards to the end zone. Without that one play, he was just a change-of-pace running back who vultured a touchdown from Jamaal Charles. If you were crazy enough to use Davis this week, you were rewarded in a huge way, but ... don't do that again.
Next game: Charles did leave the game late in the third after a big hit, but he was cleared of a concussion and by all accounts was held out primarily because the game was well in hand. Assuming that's true, and Charles is back for Week 16, Davis is only helpful as a handcuff.
DeMarco Murray, DAL (81 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 3 receiving yards, 20 fantasy points)
All told, Murray actually had a bad game Sunday. His 81 rushing yards were his third-worst total of the season, and he averaged only 2.6 yards a carry, easily his worst total of the season. Still, he found the end zone twice, and the Cowboys got definite quantity out of him, even if they didn't get as much quality as normal.
Next game: Facing a mediocre Indianapolis run defense next week, you have to like Murray's chances as a top running back.
Best wide receivers in Week 15
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (143 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns, 30 fantasy points)
Ten career games for Beckham so far. At least nine fantasy points in nine of them. Nine touchdowns. Already 972 yards. He's been targeted almost 12 times a game in his last seven, catching about eight and a half of them in each. There are only so many ways to compliment the dude at this point, but he's been incredible. Even having missed the season's first four games, I don't see how he doesn't win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Next game: The Giants travel to St. Louis next week. You have to use Beckham if it's on the table for you.
Dez Bryant, DAL (114 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns, 29 fantasy points)
The Eagles couldn't stop Bryant Sunday night. Honestly, if Tony Romo had wanted to keep throwing it to Bryant all game, I feel like it would have worked. Still, Bryant has 20-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games, six or more in 13 straight, and five or more in every game this season. He wasn't totally lighting it up early in the season, but if you drafted Bryant, you've had a good run either way.
Next game: The Cowboys host the Colts next week. Bryant will likely draw Vontae Davis, which hurts a little, but he's basically matchup-proof and must be in all lineups.
Demaryius Thomas, DEN (123 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, 18 fantasy points)
This wasn't the best game of the season for Thomas, not by a long shot. But in a lot of ways, fantasy owners had to have loved this. Thomas was held to a single fantasy point in Week 14, and had been injured. Peyton Manning, meanwhile, did nothing a week ago and briefly left Sunday's game. Getting production out of Thomas after all that had to feel like Christmas. The simple truth is that, most weeks, someone as talented as Thomas is will get production one way or another.
Next game: The Broncos travel to Cincinnati next week. Not only are you using Thomas, you're still using Peyton Manning, C.J. Anderson, Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas. Sink or swim with those guys.
Best tight ends in Week 15
Rob Gronkowski, NE (96 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, 15 fantasy points)
I keep track of everyone's fantasy scoring in a spreadsheet, and every time I look at Gronkowski's line, I just want to pretend Week 2 never happened. Take it out, and he has at least six fantasy points in every game this season, at least nine in 11 of them. It's not that his three-point Week 2 was some horrific travesty, it's just that it makes the line so much less pretty. A single healthy season doesn't mean Gronkowski is going to be healthy forever, but you've got to figure he's going to be a first-round pick next year despite any concerns.
Next game: You know why I started discussing Gronkowski for next year? Because there's nothing left to talk about this year. He's the No. 1 tight end. It isn't close.
Owen Daniels, BAL (62 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, 12 fantasy points)
Sunday was Daniels' first game of more than 11 fantasy points since Week 2. It was his first touchdown since Week 7, his second since Week 2, his fourth of the season. He has seven combined fantasy points since Week 9. But with Torrey Smith still nursing an injury and Steve Smith. still appearing ill, the Ravens looked much more toward Daniels and Marlon Brown, and it worked out for them.
Next game: The Ravens play at Houston next week. Ultimately, Daniels' status will depend on the health of the team's various Smiths, but with the dead zone that is tight end these days, Daniels will be a mid-range TE2 regardless of his teammates.
Greg Olsen, CAR (110 receiving yards, 11 fantasy points)
Antonio Gates, SD (54 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, 11 fantasy points)
Not much to say here. Two second-tier tight ends had two good games. They should be started every week, they'll rarely hurt you, and they'll rarely go off for you in a win-the-week sort of way. But they're both good, and they're both helpful.
Next game: Come on, what did I just say?
Best kicker in Week 15
Connor Barth, DEN (5/5 FG, 1/1 XP, 18 fantasy points)
Dude was unemployed a month ago. Anyone who thinks they can accurately predict kickers' fantasy performances is kidding themselves, but hey, kicking in Denver is fun.
Best defense/special teams in Week 15
Baltimore Ravens (12 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 touchdown, 8 sacks, 23 fantasy points)
The Ravens sacked Blake Bortles eight times Sunday, pulling him into second place behind Colin Kaepernick for most times sacked this season. Keep in mind that Bortles didn't play until Week 3 and didn't start until Week 4, so Kaepernick had a head start on him. I know this section is supposed to be about the Ravens, but really, whoever Jacksonville plays against is moot; the Jags make every defense elite.
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