Sunday, January 18, 2015

Mike McCarthy hates math, settles for two 4th-and-1 FGs


This is egregiously bad coaching.


On the Packers' second possession of the NFC Championship, they were stopped a foot short of the goal line. They opted to kick an 18-yard field goal. This is a bad idea.





On the Packers' third possession of the game, they were stopped a yard short of the goal line. Mike McCarthy opted to kick a field goal. This is a bad idea.



(You can click those links to read the mathematical explanation for why the Packers should have gone for it.)


The Twitter bot the New York Times has programmed to tweet the mathematical probabilities of fourth-down coaching decisions is breaking:





The Packers were blessed with great field position twice off a pair of Seahawks turnovers. Both times, they got the ball within 3 feet of the end zone. And both times, Mike McCarthy didn't have faith in his team to go those three feet.


If they'd been successful once on those fourth-and-1 attempts, they'd have seven points. If they'd been successful twice, they'd have 14. Instead, they have six.


NFL teams are capable of gaining a single yard on a running play over half the time. The worst-case scenario from a missed fourth-down attempt when you're a yard from the goal line is the other team gets the ball with absolutely horrid field position, with a high likelihood of a safety or a punt that gives you the ball in good field position. The best case is, well, points.


This is egregiously bad coaching. It came back to hurt the Lions. Let's see if the Packers are in need of points later.






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