Toronto's recent ups and downs highlight the various issues on both sides of the court for general manager Masai Ujiri's team. Did they make a mistake not adding reinforcements?
It looked like the Toronto Raptors' blowout win in Atlanta Friday would jump-start a challenge for the top overall East seed . Instead, the team followed it up with three straight losses over the past few days, leaving fans with more questions than answers when it comes to the team's title hopes.
The Raptors are a good team, make no mistake, but there aren't many contenders around the league that show up as inconsistently each night. Toronto can blow out one of the league's best teams one night, then follow it up three nights later by losing at home to a Pelicans team playing without Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday or Ryan Anderson.
Just how good are Raptors? Do they have what it takes to win in the Eastern Conference? After choosing to stay quiet at the trade deadline instead of making a big move, will general manager Masai Ujiri look back and wonder why he wasn't more aggressive? Did Toronto just miss a chance to strike while the iron was hot?
There are a lot of reasons to wonder whether this team is good enough to make a run, and they've only been underscored by the team's ongoing issues.
An up-and-down season
For a team that wins roughly 65 percent of its games, the Raptors fall flat more frequently than you'd expect. Blowout losses are far from unusual, particularly since the calendar turned to 2015. Of the team's 12 losses since then, five have been by 15 points or more.
Some of those ugly defeats have come against contenders like Atlanta and Golden State, but they also include a 125-109 loss to Phoenix Jan. 4 and a 109-93 loss to Brooklyn a month later. Great teams generally don't get slammed this regularly.
You can see the numbers in the team's fluctuating win-loss record, too. Every team goes through ebbs and flows during the season, but Toronto's are particularly striking. They began the year 24-7, then followed it up by losing eight of the next 11 games. What came after that? A six-game winning streak.
Even their current three-game losing streak was preceded by a four-game run of victories over the Clippers, Spurs, Wizards and Hawks. That's a great stretch for any team, one that would suggest a breakout. But nope, same old Raptors.
Recent issues
Inconsistency is one thing -- just ask the Cavaliers -- but it's different when you're not hitting your stride at the right time. Things haven't been getting any better for the Raptors lately, as evidenced by their net rating numbers -- which show how the team performs on average per 100 possessions -- before and after the new year.
| Raptors | Off. Rating | Def. Rating | Net Rating |
| Oct. 29-Dec. 31 | 111.7 (3rd) | 103.9 (16th) | +7.8 (3rd) |
| Jan. 1-present | 102.9 (12th) | 103.1 (19th) | -0.2 (19th) |
That's certainly not a team on the rise, yet Ujiri chose to stand pat during a busy trade deadline instead of finding reinforcements. Toronto was never a good defensive team this season, even though it was much stronger there a year ago, but the offense's decline is more problematic. What was once one league's best units is now ordinary.
Offensive decline
Here we find the crux of the issue. Not too long ago, the Raptors were an offensive juggernaut, overwhelming opponents by limiting turnovers, spacing the floor and drawing fouls. A large part of that stretch came without shooting guard DeMar DeRozan, who missed 18 games with a groin injury.
However, with DeRozan back in the lineup since Jan. 5, the offense has lost its mojo. Since he returned, the team's three-point percentage has dropped from 36 percent to 33 percent and the team's overall shooting percentage has seen a similar decline.
The return of DeRozan and his dribble-happy ways has also led to an increase in turnovers. Before the new year, the Raptors had the lowest turnover rate in the league, failing to get up a shot just 11.9 percent of the time. Since then, they're No. 22 with a 15.5 percent rate, and in February that number jumps up to 15.9 percent. For a team that doesn't have elite shooters or scorers, not wasting possessions was a big part of their success. These days, the team is turning the ball over like any other offense and it's led to some unfortunate consequences.
The competition is real
The Raptors are the No. 2 seed in the East right now with a 37-20 record, but they don't feel like the second-best team in the conference. There are the first-place Hawks, who recently rattled off one of the most impressive stretches of basketball we've seen in recent memory, and then the rising Cavaliers, who have started to dominate teams like many expected months ago.
The Bulls and Wizards also deserve mention, even though both teams are going through major issues right now. The injuries to Derrick Rose and Bradley Beal might remove those two from the mix, but I don't think anyone would bet the house on Toronto in a seven-game series against either team. It's just too difficult to know which Raptors team will show up.
Still, even though the East is clearly inferior to the West, the top of the conference has some talent. Atlanta and Cleveland are not to be trifled with and both are clearly above Toronto.
Can they turn it around?
Not too long ago, we noted that defense was going to be the Raptors' fatal flaw. The team was always mediocre in that respect, and in the postseason it's just hard to reach the championship without at least an above-average D.
However, that may not matter these days, since the Raptors don't have a particularly great offense, either. After choosing not to make a big move at the deadline, the Raptors appear vulnerable. Given the open state of the East, Ujiri's decision to not make any moves at the trade deadline looks like a mistake.
Source SBNation.com - All Posts http://ift.tt/1AKwY9K
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