This isn't the year to pick a bunch of upsets in the NCAA Tournament.
There are years in which all hell breaks loose in the NCAA Tournament, with double-digit seeds reaching the Final Four and Cinderellas traipsing all over the dance floor.
This is not going to be one of those years.
Not only is a unbeaten team the biggest favorite in many years to win it all, I'd have a very, very hard time picking any team lower than the No. 3 seed line to make the Final Four out of any of the four regions. The top teams in the country are all fairly well-seeded this year, so the sleepers are few and far between, and the mid-majors that could wreak havoc drew some terrible matchups.
Here's my bracket.
Midwest Region
I tweeted my derision for the Midwest Region on Sunday, but there's just no team that could conceivably beat Kentucky except on a really hot day here. To be able to beat the Wildcats, a team's going to have to play enough height to match up with them — Purdue, Texas, and New Mexico State are the only other teams in the top 50 in Effective Height in the Midwest, and Kentucky's Effective Height is +6.9, a full inch more than the No. 2 team in the country. (It should be noted that that team, Florida State, wasn't exactly helped by its trees this season.) And a team is going to have to be able to shoot with Kentucky, something that none of those three teams can do.
Even the teams that are great at one thing or another won't trouble Kentucky. West Virginia would be a worrisome matchup for Kentucky teams past with its vicious press, but these Mountaineers foul and foul and foul, and the Wildcats will capitalize on that. Notre Dame could run hot enough to stay with Kentucky for an evening, but the Irish would be devoured inside — and their defense might sink them before then, anyway. Kansas? We saw that show, and the Jayhawks had Cliff Alexander then.
If Kentucky doesn't come out of the Midwest, it won't just be a shock — it will be a huge failure on John Calipari's part.
West Region
I'm certainly not alone in wanting a rematch between Wisconsin and Arizona for the West Regional final. The two teams played one of the best games of the 2014 NCAA Tournament, and both squads are arguably better this season. But it's a shame that so many other good teams are going to fall to them: I'd really like North Carolina's chances of making an Elite Eight as Villanova's No. 4 seed or Gonzaga's No. 3 seed, but Wisconsin should dissect UNC's defense; VCU could trouble a lot of top-line teams with its pace, but Arizona's sped-up offense and front line of sequoias will shut down the Rams (and the Wildcats could lock down D'Angelo Russell, too).
I like Arizona to get the upper hand in this Elite Eight matchup, because no team, not even Kentucky, is playing better ball right now.
East Region
It is very trendy to pick against Villanova in this bracket, especially after last year's Wildcats succumbed to a UConn team not entirely unlike N.C. State in the second round, but this is a better 'Nova, and I think this team goes deep. On the flip side, Northern Iowa will be trendy because it is good, and I think the Panthers top depleted and erratic Louisville to make the Sweet Sixteen.
Virginia to the Final Four is a pick based on gut more than anything else: With a healthy Justin Anderson, the Cavaliers were on the short list of teams I thought could hang with Kentucky. Without him, they've been above average, with forays into very good. I think Anderson's healing process is fast enough for the Cavs to get by Michigan State, and that he might break out again in the Sweet Sixteen.
South Region
Duke should make the Sweet Sixteen with no issues: It's not losing to a No. 16 seed, and there's too much firepower for the Blue Devils to lose to either San Diego State or St. John's. And then I think Duke gets Georgetown, an unremarkably good team, by virtue of fading Utah getting upset by Stephen F. Austin, and makes it to the Elite Eight.
On the other side of the bracket, we could see some chaos: I'd tab Davidson as the No. 10 seed most likely to make the Sweet Sixteen, and UCLA, despite not deserving its spot, could beat both SMU and Iowa State. I think Gonzaga and Iowa State might have to do some surviving to get to the second weekend, and I like Jahlil Okafor's chances of doing damage against both teams.
Final Four
The pick I struggled with most this year is Kentucky-Arizona. Sean Miller's Wildcats are really, really, really good, and they've repeatedly gotten up for big games, so I doubt they would be at all intimidated by Kentucky. But they do foul an awful lot, especially their interior players, and early foul trouble would erode the edges granted by one of the few frontcourts that can stave off Calipari's 'Cats on the glass. Kentucky wins in an epic.
Duke and Virginia played one of the better games this year, and it's a shame that they only met once in ACC play. Both teams are probably coming in hot if they're at the Final Four, which would be a bigger development for Virginia than microwaveable Duke, but I just don't think UVA can keep all three of Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Okafor in check.
So, yes, we get every CBS executive's dream NCAA Tournament final — but Kentucky dominates a game that looks closer in the box score than on the floor, with its interior depth wearing down Duke despite a valiant Okafor effort in a manner very reminiscent of Florida just being too good for Ohio State and Greg Oden in 2007.
This year, the favorite wins.
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