Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Your 2015 NBA Western Conference Playoff Picture and Tiebreaker Guide


Tiebreakers are complicated. The West playoff picture is complicated. Let us help out.


The NBA playoff picture in the Western Conference is quite hazy beyond the Warriors at No. 1. In an effort to set the table for the stretch run, we've provided this Guide to the West Tiebreakers. It lays out the tiebreakers that will be used if two teams in the playoff picture finish the season with identical records, and explains who is currently in a preferred position in each.


We will update this each morning to reflect the current situation.


★★★


Last updated: After games played 3/30/2015. The Grizzlies quickly regained ownership of the No. 2 seed. Phoenix is so out of here (4.5 games back).


★★★


Current playoff picture


This is the Too Long; Didn't Read version. If the season ended right this second, here are your first-round matchups.


Warriors (1) vs. Thunder (8)

Blazers (4) vs. Clippers (5)*
Clippers have home court advantage



Grizzlies (2) vs. Mavericks (7)

Rockets (3) vs. Spurs (6)


Standings


If you have a better record than the next team in line, tiebreakers don't matter. There is one quirky thing here: division winners (see first tiebreak) cannot be seeded below No. 4, but division winners do not get home court advantage against teams higher than them in the standings in any case. Division leaders outlined in ALL CAPS.







































































Team W-L WP% Games Back
1. WARRIORS 60-13.822--
2. GRIZZLIES 51-24.68010
3. Rockets 50-24.67610.5
4. Clippers
49-25.66211.5
5. BLAZERS 48-25.65812
6. Spurs 47-26.64413
7. Mavericks 45-29.60815.5
8. Thunder
42-32.56818.5
9. Pelicans 39-34.53421
10. Suns 38-37.50723

First tiebreaker: Division winners


Division winners earn the tiebreaker over non-division winners in playoff seeding and home court advantage determinations. Here are the current West division leaders.


NORTHWEST: Portland | SOUTHWEST: Memphis | PACIFIC: Golden State


Portland is very likely to win its division. That gives the Blazers an advantage over any non-division winner, which could include the No. 2 and possibly No. 3 teams in the Southwest (any of Memphis, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas) and the No. 2 team in the Pacific (the Clippers).


Also note that while it is not a tiebreaker issue, division winners seeded No. 3 or No. 4 who have worse records that their first-round opponents do not receive home court advantage.


Second tiebreaker: Head-to-head records


If both or neither teams in a tiebreak situation are division winners, the tie is broken by head-to-head record.


The most relevant head-to-head tiebreaks already clinched are:


Memphis over Portland

Memphis over Dallas

Portland over Houston

Portland over San Antonio

Los Angeles over Dallas

Dallas over New Orleans

Phoenix over Dallas

New Orleans over Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City over Phoenix


The most relevant head-to-head tiebreaks that have already ended in ties are:


Houston and Memphis

Houston and Los Angeles

San Antonio and Memphis

San Antonio and Los Angeles

San Antonio and Dallas


The following table shows each playoff contender's record against other playoff contenders. Records in BOLD indicate that one of the teams has already clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker for the season. Records in ITALICS indicate a season series tie, in which case the next tiebreak comes into play. An asterisk indicates the teams will play only three times this season. Otherwise, the teams play each other four times.




















































































































































X GSW MEM HOU POR LAC DAL SAS OKC NOP PHX
GSW --1-1*GSW 4-0 GSW 2-0* GSW 2-1GSW 3-0 1-1*GSW 3-1 GSW 3-0 GSW 2-1
MEM 1-1*--2-2 MEM 4-0 MEM 2-1MEM 3-1 2-2 MEM 2-1NOP 2-1MEM 3-0
HOU GSW 4-0 2-2 --POR 2-1* 2-2 HOU 2-11-1HOU 2-0* NOP 2-1HOU 3-1
POR GSW 2-0* MEM 4-0 POR 2-1* --LAC 2-1POR 2-1POR 3-1 POR 3-0 POR 2-0* POR 3-1
LAC GSW 2-1MEM 2-12-2 LAC 2-1--LAC 2-1* 2-2 LAC 2-1* LAC 2-1* LAC 3-0
DAL GSW 3-0 MEM 3-1 HOU 2-1POR 2-1LAC 2-1* --2-2 DAL 2-1DAL 3-1 PHX 3-0
SAS 1-1*2-2 1-1POR 3-1 2-2 2-2 --1-1*NOP 2-1SAS 2-1
OKC GSW 3-1 MEM 2-1HOU 2-0* POR 3-0 LAC 2-1* DAL 2-11-1*--NOP 3-1 OKC 3-1
NOP GSW 3-0 NOP 2-1NOP 2-1POR 2-0* LAC 2-1* DAL 3-1 NOP 2-1NOP 3-1 --NOP 1-0*
PHX GSW 2-1MEM 3-0 HOU 3-1 POR 3-1 LAC 3-0 PHX 3-0 SAS 2-1OKC 3-1 NOP 1-1*--

Third tiebreaker: In-division record


If two teams in the same division split their season series and have equal records, the team with the better in-division record gets the advantage. This is currently only in play for the Southwest Division.


MEMPHIS 8-7

HOUSTON 6-6


DALLAS 7-8

SAN ANTONIO 6-7


Fourth tiebreaker: In-conference record


If two teams are tied in the standings and neither of the first two tiebreakers can solve the problem, the team with the better in-conference record wins the tie. Here's the current situation for the relevant pairings whose head-to-head season series have ended in ties.


Memphis has a 3-game lead on Houston in-conference

L.A. has a 3-game lead on Houston in-conference

L.A. has a 5.5-game lead on San Antonio in-conference

Memphis and L.A. are tied in-conference


Here are the current in-conference records for each team.




























































Team Record W%
Warriors 35-8.814
Clippers 31-14.689
Grizzlies 32-15.681
Blazers 28-16.636
Rockets 28-17.622
Spurs 26-19.578
Mavericks
24-20.545
Pelicans 23-20.535
Thunder 22-23.489
Suns 20-26.435

Additional tiebreakers


If matters are still not resolved -- which is unlikely but possible -- the team with the better record against other playoff teams in the West will earn the tiebreak. If that does not resolve the issue, the team with the better record against the East playoff teams will earn the tiebreak. If that does not resolve the issue, the tiebreaker will be settled by the teams' net total points (total points scored minus total points allowed). If that does not resolve the issue, both team are ejected and the Lakers and Knicks take their spots.*


* We think this is a joke.






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