Friday, March 13, 2015

Fantasy football 2015: Impact of free agency, trades on wide receivers


Maybe the wide receiver action has lacked quantity, but there's certainly been some quality here.


With Randall Cobb re-upping in Green Bay, Dez Bryant getting franchise tagged and most of the other superstar wide receivers not on the market this offseason, the position hasn't seen as much crazy movement as some other positions so far.


Still, one of the offseason's first big surprises was a wide receiver going from Chicago to New York, and there have been a handful of other moves worthy of consideration.


Today, we're running through the notable offseason moves so far and checking how they affect guys' fantasy values. Running backs came earlier today. This is wide receivers; quarterbacks and tight ends are coming later in the day.


Brandon Marshall to the Jets


Last season featured Marshall's fewest games played, fewest yards since his 2006 rookie season, and third team deciding it was tired of him. Still, he and Eric Decker — who never actually overlapped in Denver despite my brain trying to convince me otherwise — should form a strong pair, especially now that they have a new quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who is at least competent. Still, Marshall is decidedly past his prime. Frankly, I'm going Decker before Marshall at the position this year, though not by much. At a glance, Decker will be a high-end WR3, with Marshall just a bit behind. Even with Fitzpatrick, this isn't going to be a formidable offense.


Meanwhile, in Chicago, it becomes Alshon Jeffery's job without much contention. The Bears signed Eddie Royal, and Marquess Wilson is developing, but Jeffery is a clear WR1, and the other two are just fantasy filler.


Jeremy Maclin to Kansas City


Well, the Chiefs will have a touchdown from a wide receiver in 2015. Of course, I'd have said that no matter what, because crazy numbers regress one way or another. But still, assuming Maclin stays healthy, the Chiefs have their best receiver since at least Dwayne Bowe's 1,162-yard, 15-score 2010. The problem for Maclin (and fantasy owners) is that Alex Smith just doesn't throw the ball downfield. Maclin's value will come a lot from his yards after the catch. He was ninth in the NFL in the stat a year ago, at 489, but it's hard to rely on long-term.


Maclin looks like a WR3, with enough upside to climb, but enough risk in that offense to scare you.


Andre Johnson to Indianapolis


Look, Johnson has slipped. There's no question. But Reggie Wayne has slipped more, and his time in Indianapolis was over. Johnson, with T.Y. Hilton in front of him in the rotation, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen alongside the position, and Andrew Luck slinging the ball, there's no reason Johnson shouldn't bounce back from a bad 2014. He looks like a low-end fantasy starter.


Torrey Smith to San Francisco


With Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson gone from the 49ers, their receiver corps is just the Ravens redux, with Smith and Anquan Boldin reuniting. Carlos Hyde's upside aside, though, this doesn't look like a powerful 2015 offense — you can't trust Vernon Davis at this point, and Boldin and Smith both have another year on them. Smith's value was so hit-and-miss in a system he was familiar with; in San Francisco I'd have a tough time even rostering him, let along starting him.


(Still to land somewhere: Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Britt, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Cecil Shorts, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker)






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