Friday, March 13, 2015

Fantasy football 2015: Impact of free agency, trades on quarterbacks, tight ends


The quarterback movement hasn't been exciting, but ohhhh, the tight ends have been.


There was never a lot of chance the quarterback position would see huge changes this offseason. Despite occasional rumors about Drew Brees and/or Jay Cutler, the league is so quarterback-driven and quarterback-starved that it never made sense for any of teams with the big names to make any wholesale changes.


Instead, what we've seen at quarterback so far was a lot of tinkering at the fringes. Tampa Bay's awful starter went to Cleveland, whose awful starter went to Houston, whose awful starter went to New York. That sort of thing. Maybe more changes near draft time, but the quarterback position hasn't been super exciting so far this offseason.


The same can decidedly not be said about tight end. The top two (or at least two of the top three) in most drafts entering last season have changed positions, and a handful of other biggish names have moved around as well.


Today, we're running through the most noteworthy moves of the offseason so far and checking out the changes in fantasy value in each move. Earlier today, we checked in on the running backs and wide receivers; here, we're doing the tight ends, with a bit on those smaller-name quarterbacks at the end.


Tight ends


Jimmy Graham to Seattle


On the negative side of things, Graham is now unquestionably a distant No. 2 to Rob Gronkowski. On the positive, he's miles ahead of No. 3. It's unlikely Graham will ever connect with a quarterback again like he did with Drew Brees. On the other hand, if anyone is going to figure out how to capitalize on Brees, it's a Seattle offense with Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson. It doesn't change Graham's ranking, though; like I said, he's the clear No. 2 tight end.


The move does bump Wilson up. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are the obvious top two quarterbacks, but the addition of Graham brings Wilson into a close match with Peyton Manning for No. 3. Brees, meanwhile, loses his top weapon, and slides down to sixth or seventh at the position.


Julius Thomas to Jacksonville


I will absolutely never fault any football player for getting his money when he can get it, not in a league where virtually every contract is a one-year deal with a bunch of team options. Thomas got his while he could. The downside, of course, is that now he has Blake Bortles and the flippin' Jaguars to work with instead of a mega-elite offense headed up by Peyton Manning. He's still a stout tight end, but where he was a clear No. 3 in Denver, he's more in a battle for the middle of the starters. Thomas will rank behind Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce, and will be in the mix with Martellus Bennett, the Colts' guys, and the person next on this list.


Owen Daniels to Denver


That's right, bringing the wasn't-he-washed-up-five-minutes-ago Daniels into a Peyton Manning offense makes him an easy top-10 tight end in my book. Gary Kubiak brought Daniels along when he took the job, and we all know how fun it must be being Manning's tight end. Even at 32 (33 in November), Daniels is a fantasy starter.


Jordan Cameron to Miami


Despite hanging the transition tag on incumbent Charles Clay, the Dolphins signed Cameron Thursday night. He'll be the team's top tight end in the season regardless of whether Clay sticks around, which looks exceptionally unlikely. Still, Cameron's track record of success isn't exactly long, while his track record of injury is. You like him more in Miami than in Cleveland, but he's a very low-end starter at best.


Quarterbacks


Ryan Fitzpatrick to the Jets


"He's better than Geno Smith" isn't high praise, but, you know, it works for the Jets, who at least have a fairly competent passer. Fitzpatrick won't be a fantasy starter by any means, but he has had some passing success in the league. His value is more in how it helps Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker than in being useful in and of himself, but as a super-late option in a two-quarterback league, Fitzpatrick has a little bit to offer.


Sam Bradford to Philadelphia


Entering preseason last year, there was a lot of cautiously optimistic talk about Bradford's fantasy potential. No one was head over heels, but there was talk. Now, a year and another torn ACL later, he's in Philadelphia and people are not into it. Still, you can see a scenario in which Bradford is fantasy-useful this season, throwing a bunch of short passes to Darren Sproles, Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz. Don't dare draft him as your starter, but keep an eye on him for bye weeks and the like, because things are possible.


Matt Cassel to Buffalo

Josh McCown to Cleveland

Brian Hoyer to Houston

Nick Foles to St. Louis


All four of these guys have jobs. In a 32-team league that only has 25 or so truly qualified quarterbacks, all four probably deserve starting jobs or similar, and all four are better than their teams' available alternatives (with McCown the most possible exception to all of that). But don't you dare run any of these guys out there in fantasy unless your world has ended.






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