Several weeks ago, the East appeared wide open. Now, it's a two-team race at the top, a glut of struggling teams in the middle and surging clubs at the bottom.
Just a couple months ago, it seemed like the Eastern Conference hierarchy had settled in. On Dec. 31, the Raptors, Hawks, Bulls and Wizards were all within one game of the No. 1 seed, while the Cavaliers lurked in the background amid various on- and off-court issues. There was no favorite in the East.
Fast forward to early March, and the conference has dramatically changed. Atlanta is now the obvious favorite, holding a 10-game lead for No. 1 seed. Three of the supposed contenders have taken major steps back and the only team that seems likely to take down the Hawks had a sub-.500 record on Jan. 13.
Instead of a wide open situation with as many as five teams capable of contending, the East is becoming a two-horse race between Atlanta and Cleveland. Toronto, Chicago and Washington are simply hoping to play spoiler. Meanwhile, the bottom of the conference has come into its own, turning what looked like a boring race for the final playoff spots more interesting.
So how exactly did we get here? Trades, injuries and a whole bunch of other stuff.
Mozgov and J.R., saviors
The Cavaliers were supposed to take the East by storm after adding LeBron James and Kevin Love over the summer. That's finally happened in recent weeks, but only after the team made a couple big trades to shake up a top-heavy roster.
When Cleveland made its moves in early January, adding Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert in a pair of trades involving the Nuggets, Knicks and Thunder, the team was in the midst of a brutal losing streak. James was on the bench trying to rest his way through back and knee issues and rumors swirled that coach David Blatt wasn't commanding leadership in the locker room.
The Cavaliers were 19-17 at the time of the trades and ended up dropping to 19-20 before snapping a six-game losing streak. Turns out that 109-102 victory over the Lakers, which came despite 17 assists from Kobe Bryant, was the turning point in the season.
With a healthy LeBron back leading the way, Mozgov anchoring the middle and Smith providing steady perimeter scoring on the wing, Cleveland has rattled off 19 wins in 23 games since falling below .500, beating teams like the Clippers, Trail Blazers, Warriors and Thunder in the process. After being outscored by 0.2 points per 100 possessions before the trades, the Cavaliers have outscored teams by 8.3 points per 100 possessions since.
Mozgov in particular has been a revelation for Cleveland. The Cavaliers outscore opponents by 13.1 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor -- best on the team -- and that number drops to just 3.6 points per 100 possessions when he's out. James and Irving are the only other players on the roster having that kind of impact, which should tell you something about how important Mozgov's addition has been.
The Hawks made their ascent through December and January, winning game after game to reinforce they weren't a fluke. Over the past month, we saw the same in Cleveland.
The second tier emerges
Chicago, Toronto and Washington were supposed to be part of a larger first tier of East contenders. Instead, the past few months have seen the Raptors and Wizards take major steps back on the court, while the Bulls have lost two of their best players to injuries until the final weeks of the regular season.
That's created a second tier in the East, with a trio of teams that seemed good enough to contend months ago before the issues popped up. Toronto, as we discussed recently, has failed to sustain its red-hot start on the offensive end and suffered badly as a result.
Things have been even worse in Washington, where the Wizards have lost 12 of 15 amid calls for the firing of coach Randy Wittman. The loss of Bradley Beal to a stress injury only served to highlight the team's inability (or unwillingness) to shoot threes, and it's been over six weeks since they beat an opponent with a record over .500.
And then there are the Bulls, who haven't looked as dire on the court, but don't stand a chance in the playoffs unless Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler can get right. Both players are expected to be sidelined until near the end of the regular season, and getting through the next few weeks leaning on Aaron Brooks and Tony Snell won't be easy.
One could argue the Raptors, Wizards and Bulls belong in a tier with the Bucks more than the Hawks or Cavaliers. Milwaukee rose to seven games over .500 just before the All-Star break, but has struggled since trading Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams. The Bucks are missing an opportunity to move up as well.
In the West, everybody seems to be a contender. In the East, three of the biggest favorites are circling the wagons to save their seasons.
The fight at the bottom
The race for the top seed in the East is pretty much over, but who the Hawks face in the first round is a complete toss up at this point. The Heat, Nets, Hornets, Pacers, Celtics and Pistons are all within three games of each other and only two of them will be able to get into the postseason.
Miami seemed like a safe bet earlier in the season with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade leading the way, but now the former is sidelined by blood clots and the latter remains limited by aging knees. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside can only do so much to keep the boat afloat.
The one team that really seems to be jumping up the standings is Indiana, which has won eight of its past 10 and seems to be finding its form. The Pacers have been one of the league's best defensive teams all season even without Paul George, and the All-Star wing's return before the end of the regular season could make Indiana the one team nobody wants to face in the first round. But the Celtics, Nets, Hornets and Pistons have all played well as well, turning this into a six-team race that wasn't expected a few weeks ago.
So while there's been a lot of change at the top of the standings, we're seeing a lot of movement in the middle of the pack, as well. A tricky first-round matchup between the Hawks and Pacers would've been unthinkable in November, but it's becoming more and more likely each day.
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