Wednesday, March 25, 2015

The NBA Rookie of the Year race is no longer Andrew Wiggins' to lose


Andrew Wiggins appeared to be running away with the Rookie of the Year, but with other first-year players putting up big numbers in March, this season's race is getting tighter than anyone expected.


The narrative was set midway through the season. Andrew Wiggins, the precocious former No. 1 pick and ongoing highlight reel for the Minnesota Timberwolves, would continue his ascent to NBA stardom by winning Rookie of the Year in a landslide. With no Jabari Parker or Julius Randle, Wiggins' path to his first major award had been cleared.


It turns out we may have underestimated the rest of Wiggins' competition. With the Timberwolves floundering over the past few weeks and several other rookies lighting up the court, the race for the 2015 Rookie of the Year award is going to be much tighter than originally anticipated.


While Wiggins remains the front-runner with just weeks remaining in the season, Nerlens Noel, Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton -- each wildly different players with distinct backgrounds -- are making it hard to just hand the award to Wiggins. Could someone really change the narrative and usurp Wiggins' throne as the top rookie? Let's take a look at the cases for each player.


Andrew Wiggins


The factors in favor of Wiggins are pretty obvious. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft, leads all rookies in points per game (15.8) by a sizable margin and routinely delivers highlight dunks. He looks and feels like the best player in this rookie class for years to come and voters rarely ignore an overwhelming advantage in scoring.


So the real question is, what's wrong with Wiggins' resume?


The biggest knock is that Wiggins hasn't actually made the Timberwolves any better. Minnesota is just 16-54 this season and the team's numbers don't improve when he's on the court. In fact, the team gets outscored by the exact same figure per 100 possessions (nine points) regardless of whether Wiggins is in the game or not.


If Wiggins was an impact player as a rookie, you'd see it more in his on-court/off-court numbers, or so the argument goes. There's also his middling three-point shooting (32 percent) and the fact that he has more turnovers than assists.


However, when you consider his teammates and the fact that he's using nearly 22 percent of the Timberwolves' possessions despite turning 20 years old just a month ago, it's clear there's a lot to be impressed with.


Even if Wiggins has slowed down of late, his year-long production is tops among rookies.


Nerlens Noel


When you consider the circumstances of Noel's rookie season -- missing an entire year only to be saddled with anchoring one of the worst teams in the league -- it's noteworthy he's been this good. While the 20-year-old is a work-in-progress on the offensive end, he's developed much quicker than expected on defense.


Voters typically emphasize scoring and other things tabulated in the box score, which hurts Noel's case. But more peopel are beginning to notice the impact he makes blocking shots, protecting the rim and generating steals.


Noel is easily the most exciting thing about Philly these days. In March, Noel has been fantastic for the 76ers, averaging 13 points, 10 and a half rebounds, nearly three steals and over two blocks per game. His length and athleticism are unique even in a league loaded with special athletes and he's been blossoming despite the pressure of being a primary contributor.


It's not often you see a defensive-minded player in the mix for Rookie of the Year, but it's not often you get a prospect like Noel.


Nikola Mirotic


Mirotic is another rookie under some unique circumstances. A 24-year-old with significant experience in Europe's top league, Mirotic arrived more ready to contribute immediately than his peers.


That's not to dismiss Mirotic's performance, however, because the 6'10 sharpshooter has been stellar this month. It took Mirotic some time to get into the flow of Tom Thibodeau's system and find his shooting stroke, but now it's becoming clear why there was so much hype surrounding his performance overseas.


With two of Chicago's big names, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, sidelined due to injury, Mirotic has stepped up and kept the team competitive. Over the past 13 games, he's averaged 21 points and nine rebounds per game, even though he came off the bench in all but one of those contests.


It may be hard for Mirotic to win the award considering he's averaging under 10 points and five rebounds per game overall, but unlike other rookies, he's had a positive impact on a playoff contender. The Bulls outscore opponents by five and a half points per 100 possessions when Mirotic is in, per NBA.com, compared to less than one point per 100 possessions without him. That's the best differential on the team.


Elfrid Payton


Payton made history last week by becoming the first rookie since Antoine Walker to record back-to-back triple-doubles. By torching the Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers in consecutive games, the 21-year-old quickly forced his name into the Rookie of the Year discussion despite a low scoring average.


It's not hard to see the flaws in Payton's candidacy: he's averaging under nine points per game on 42 percent shooting. He's made just eight three-pointers all season. He's shooting 53 percent from the free throw line. The point guard clearly needs to improve his stroke.


With that said, Payton's diverse contributions have made him one of the Magic's most effective players even during this rough season. When the rookie guard is on the court, Orlando gets outscored by under four points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. That doesn't sound great, but it's impressive when you consider the team gets outscored by over nine points per 100 possessions when he's not out there.


That Payton has been that useful even without strong shooting is a testament to his other skills. The Magic guard leads all rookies in assists per game and is second in steals per game behind Noel. He's among the top rebounding first-year guards.


And like the other candidates, Payton's game has been coming together late in the season. Over the past 10 games, Payton is averaging 14 points, nine assists, seven rebounds and two steals per game while shooting 48 percent from the floor. It's no surprise that Orlando's coaching staff is giving him more minutes than ever.


Payton may be playing from behind given the lackluster numbers he posted early in the season, but like Noel and Mirotic, he's been great lately.






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