The last big event before the Masters finishes up on Sunday in Orlando, and a dialed-in Henrik Stenson is making a strong case that he'll be a force at Augusta.
Only one round remains in the Florida swing and one of the top international talents in the game sits on the 54-hole lead at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It's not world No. 1 Rory McIlroy, who is making his first ever start at Bay Hill. But rather Henrik Stenson, who is looking like a major threat to take the green jacket at Augusta in three weeks.
It's been Stenson and not McIlroy who has lit up the Florida swing. The Swede has always had the talent so it's no surprise, but he's certainly trending towards contention at the Masters. After a T4 finish at Doral, he shot up the leaderboard Sunday in Tampa, momentarily taking the lead before settling with another 4th place finish. Now he'll start the final round at Bay Hill two shots clear of Morgan Hoffmann.
Stenson is a former FedExCup champ, Players champion, and mainstay inside the top five in the world rankings over the past couple years. That wander in the wilderness when he tumbled out of the rankings and played local country club events when he couldn't even qualify for major championships is long gone. He pops it off the tee and is one of the best ball strikers in the world. The putting has always been a weak spot, but the stats around that part of his game are dramatically improved this season. The round last Sunday at the Valspar Championship and the work so far this weekend in Orlando are vintage Stenson. There's really no one better tee-to-green when he's on, and he's made it look really easy on this Florida swing.
He was thought to be a favorite at the Masters last year -- it was, after all, the first major since he went on that tear to sweep both the PGA Tour's postseason, the FedExCup, and the Euro Tour's playoffs, the Race to Dubai. It was a monumentally lucrative stretch that had him finishing up the year as the best player in the world. So he was a trendy pick to be there at the next major, which didn't come around until April. But by then his form was lost a bit, and he admitted that end-of-the-year run had left him exhausted at the start of 2014. Now he appears to be peaking at the perfect time and a win in one of the most important pre-Masters prep tournaments would solidify that status. Stenson and Hoffmann will tee off No. 1 at 2 p.m. ET, setting up an estimated 6 p.m. finish on NBC.
While Stenson took command of the API, McIlroy faded with three straight bogeys down the stretch. It was ugly all around, with poor putts, flubbed chips, and drives bombed way off the fairway. Up until that point, it looked like Rory was going to charge to the top of the board while all the others dropped off and yielded the way for the world No. 1. Instead, we got some more of that shaky form that's crept up throughout this Florida swing, including this badly missed putt from inside three feet.
Rory misses 2'7" putt at 15, his 10th miss under 3 feet over last 2 seasons. Tiger missed 9 total inside 3 feet from 2003-2009.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGC) March 21, 2015
McIlroy is the clear No. 1 in the game right now and this Florida swing isn't going to change that. He'll be the favorite at Augusta. But what we've seen this month in his first three PGA Tour starts is a bit disconcerting and a departure from the dominance at the start of the year on the Euro Tour.
Thanks to those three late bogeys, McIlroy is now seven shots back of Stenson. Bay Hill is playing easier than ever, so a low-to-mid-60s round is out there for Rory. But he'll need some help from those ahead of him, and the way Stenson is striping it right now, that seems unlikely. McIlroy will be out with Danny Lee at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Here's the full tee sheet for the final round at Bay Hill:
| Tee Time | Players | |
| 8:35 a.m. | Vijay Singh | Davis Love III |
| 8:44 a.m. | Freddie Jacobson | William McGirt |
| 8:53 a.m. | Spencer Levin | Kevin Streelman |
| 9:02 a.m. | Steve Wheatcroft | Alex Prugh |
| 9:11 a.m. | Ken Duke | Jason Bohn |
| 9:20 a.m. | John Huh | Branden Grace |
| 9:29 a.m. | Chesson Hadley | Justin Thomas |
| 9:38 a.m. | Daniel Summerhays | Steven Bowditch |
| 9:47 a.m. | Hideki Matsuyama | Rickie Fowler |
| 9:56 a.m. | Blayne Barber | Brooks Koepka |
| 10:05 a.m. | Erik Compton | George McNeill |
| 10:14 a.m. | Jason Day | Billy Horschel |
| 10:23 a.m. | Gary Woodland | Martin Laird |
| 10:32 a.m. | Zac Blair | Russell Henley |
| 10:41 a.m. | Danny Willett | Nick Taylor |
| 10:50 a.m. | David Hearn | Hunter Mahan |
| 11:00 a.m. | Webb Simpson | Ernie Els |
| 11:10 a.m. | Shawn Stefani | Padraig Harrington |
| 11:20 a.m. | Francesco Molinari | Nicholas Thompson |
| 11:30 a.m. | Carlos Ortiz | Adam Scott |
| 11:40 a.m. | Zach Johnson | Carl Pettersson |
| 11:50 a.m. | Charles Howell III | David Lingmerth |
| 12:00 p.m. | Daniel Berger | Kevin Kisner |
| 12:10 p.m. | Russell Knox | Hudson Swafford |
| 12:20 p.m. | John Peterson | Ian Poulter |
| 12:30 p.m. | Camilo Villegas | Ryo Ishikawa |
| 12:40 p.m. | Brandt Snedeker | Sam Saunders |
| 12:50 p.m. | Rory McIlroy | Danny Lee |
| 1:00 p.m. | Keegan Bradley | Louis Oosthuizen |
| 1:10 p.m. | Harris English | D.A. Points |
| 1:20 p.m. | Brendan Steele | Kevin Na |
| 1:30 p.m. | Sean O'Hair | Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
| 1:40 p.m. | Ben Martin | Matt Every |
| 1:50 p.m. | Jason Kokrak | Matt Jones |
| 2:00 p.m. | Henrik Stenson | Morgan Hoffmann |
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