Lionel Messi is the best player in the world at present, while Cristiano Ronaldo is struggling. Can Real Madrid flip the script against Barcelona in El Clásico?
The biggest game in club football has arrived again, and it could be a title decider in Spain. Barcelona lead the league by one point, and they host Real Madrid in El Clásico on Sunday (4 p.m. ET, beIN Sports).
This isn't quite the La Liga of the beginning of theso decade, when the Clásicos were the only games that mattered. Atlético Madrid and Valencia are quite good now, the rest of the top seven are extremely competitive and all of the top 12 have the capacity to avoid being embarrassed by the big two, even when they're playing exceptionally well. The loser of Sunday's Clásico could bounce back and win the league anyway.
But it certainly doesn't feel like Real Madrid are in a place where that's going to happen for them. They've only won four points from their last three La Liga games and conceded four goals at home to Schalke in their most recent Champions League match. Cristiano Ronaldo is refusing to speak to the media, Gareth Bale's taking a beating in the press, and there's already speculation about Zinedine Zidane taking over Carlo Ancelotti's post this summer. On top of all this, they got the worst draw imaginable from a game perspective in Champions League -- rivals Atlético Madrid. A loss might send them into a tailspin.
Barcelona, meanwhile, thoroughly embarrassed Manchester City in midweek. Lionel Messi is playing his best football since 2012. Luis Suarez is finally clicking with Neymar and Messi, while Ivan Rakitic looks like the perfect Xavi replacement. It's difficult to see one loss bringing this Barca team down, even if it does come in a Clásico.
Messi in form, Cristiano under pressure. Barca flying high, Madrid in crisis. A game at Camp Nou. This one has all the ingredients for a Barca win that pounds the first nail into Ancelotti's coffin. Can he flip the script dramatically?
Team news
The big story coming into this game is the fitness of Sergio Busquets. He sat out Barca's Champions League match midweek and is in a race to get fit for this match. He'll likely be a game-time decision. Martin Montoya also has a knock, but he's available if Luis Enrique needs him. Thomas Vermaelen is still out injured, and seems unlikely to feature this season.
Madrid have fewer injury concerns, though their recently returning midfielders aren't fully fit. Luka Modric and Sami Khedira have only played a couple of times since coming back from long layoffs, and Khedira's had a virus recently to boot. James Rodriguez is unavailable for this game and won't be back until mid-April.
Projected lineups
Barcelona (4-3-3): Claudio Bravo, Jordi Alba, Javier Mascherano, Gerard Pique, Dani Alves; Sergio Busquets, Ivan Rakitic, Andres Iniesta, Neymar, Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez
Real Madrid (4-4-2): Iker Casillas, Marcelo, Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Dani Carvajal; Isco, Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, Gareth Bale, Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema
If Busquets isn't fit to start, Mascherano will move up the pitch, while Marc Bartra or Jeremy Mathieu comes in to play central defense. Real Madrid could play 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 with this personnel, but played 4-4-2 in the last Clásico.
Key matchups
Marcelo vs. Luis Suarez -- While Madrid's attackers take all the plaudits, their unsung hero this season has been Marcelo. He's improved defensively over the last couple of seasons and he's become the team's second-best creator, behind Isco. His crosses and diagonals set up just as many goals as any other means of attacking that Madrid have, and Suarez will need to track him.
The three-on-two midfield battle -- When a team plays 4-4-2 against a 4-3-3, usually one of two things is going on. Either they believe their midfielders are so far superior to the other team's that they don't need a third or they're not trying to control midfield, and are simply defending deep with two banks of four. If Madrid play this system against Barca, seemingly it should be the latter, but it was the former in the first Clásico. Luka Modric and Toni Kroos made the Barca midfield look like amateurs. Can they do it again?
Karim Benzema vs. Barca's weakness -- No matter what, Barcelona's defense will not be 100 percent, and Enrique has to pick his poison. Would he rather play a not fully fit version of Busquets or give a start to Marc Bartra or Jeremy Mathieu in a game that's over their heads? Either way, Benzema will need to find ways to exploit Barca's weakness, whether that's dropping deep to win the ball off Busquets or running at a vulnerable center back.
Prediction
Modric and Kroos were downright dominant in the first Clásico, but this should be a different match. Modric is fit again, but he hasn't had enough games to hit top form, and Kroos has been average lately. Ronaldo is on a minor cold streak, while Messi is the most in-form player in the world. This is the beginning of the end of the Ancelotti era and the BBC. 3-1, Barcelona.
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