There are a handful of players in the draft who could either be superstars or potentially flame out in a hurry.
Potential is a dangerous thing. Every prospect in the NFL Draft has potential. Some happen to have more of it than others. The key is tapping into and harnessing that potential. There isn't a way to wholly quantify potential, but typically players with good athletic numbers are perceived to have it. You can also see potential in flashes of greatness. Plays so spectacular that you think they can be consistently replicated.
With potential becomes expectation, a burden. Some players thrive on potential and expectation. Other players fail spectacularly because of it. That's where the term "boom or bust" comes from. The players that boom because stars. The players that bust we'll always wonder what could have been. Here are the five biggest boom or bust players in the 2015 NFL Draft:
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
No player in the draft this year epitomizes boom or bust more so than Green-Beckham. In fact, if we apply the "generational" tag to something remotely negative, it would be affixed to Green-Beckham. Green-Beckham had just one good college season, catching 59 passes for 883 yards and 12 touchdowns. That was in 2013. He sat out last season after transferring to Oklahoma. But even in 2013, he was inconsistent. He had just three games of 100 yards or more and was quiet in just as many.
Whatever team drafts Green-Beckham will have to be careful with him. Green-Beckham is limited to a certain number of routes, needs to be lined up outside and obviously will have some rust to knock off. Then there are the off-field issues. Although Green-Beckham hasn’t had an incident since transferring to Oklahoma, some will always wonder if it will happen again.
"I know what’s at stake," Green-Beckham said at the NFL Scouting Combine in February. "I know what type of person I am. I understand what the NFL is looking for (from) me as a person. I just want them to know I’m going to go out there and give it my all and showing everybody what I’m capable of doing and focusing on being the best player I can be."
Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
Collins has all of the traits you look for in a starting cornerback. He’s big at 6'1 and 203 pounds and fast, running a 4.48 40-yard dash at the Combine. He played well against Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper last season and flashed in several other games.
Some pause because, although Collins played in 39 games for LSU, he started just 10. He started seven games last season, but some contest that’s only because starting cornerback Rashard Robinson was suspended.
"I mean, we've got a lot of good players at LSU," Collins told reporters at LSU's Pro Day on Friday. "Not everybody gets a lot of snaps because we've got a lot of talent."
As you’d expect, LSU coaches are saying good things about Collins. His position coach said they rotated players in the secondary, but also said Collins is a late bloomer. While the rotation stuff may be true, it’s not something NFL teams prefer. The NFL Draft Advisory Board, which tells player what round their expected to go in, told Collins to go back to LSU for his senior season.
Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
Armstead is a player you make in Madden. He’s a goliath at 6'7 and nearly 300 pounds. But he’s not some lumbering space filler. He’s a legit athlete with the strength to handle double teams. However, Armstead is coming off a season of just 46 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. Even when you account the double teams, those numbers are still low. Armstead is raw as a player, and it shows in games where he’s relatively quiet.
The tools are all there for Armstead to be successful, especially on a 3-4 team as a five-technique. It’s just a matter of harnessing those tools.
Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
What role does a 6'5 but 235-pound linebacker have in the NFL? A similar player, Dion Jordan of the Miami Dolphins, has struggled while being played out of position. Will an NFL team be willing to change what they do to put Gregory in a position to be successful? There are also some strength issues with Gregory. He got by at times at Nebraska because he plays with good technique. But when Gregory gets overpowered, he can become a non-factor.
Want another player a team will have to put in the right system? Washington’s Shaq Thompson may be a linebacker. Or he’s a safety. Or he’s both. If he’s miscast, he could struggle.
Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville
Holliman makes the list because he’s a one-trick player. Holliman is really, really good at intercepting passes. He led the nation last year with 14 interception, which tied an NCAA record. In regard to his hands, there is no better safety in the draft this year. But after you get past the gaudy interception numbers, you see some issues in his play. Holliman is a skinnier safety and doesn’t play very physical. He’s not a good tackler and will take a bad angle to the ball. If Holliman’s negatives can be coached up, though, he could be a good player because of his ball hawking skills and agility to make a play on the football.
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