The big 2015 SMU football guide: Chad Morris and way more fun

The 128-team countdown enters the AAC and profiles a team that is almost guaranteed to improve.

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1. The end comes quickly

Last year's SMU preview centered around the line between consistency and stagnation. Under June Jones, the Mustangs had mastered the art of staying the same. In terms of F/+ ratings, there were some peaks (51st in 2011) and valleys (88th in 2013), but SMU had won either seven or eight games every year from 2009-12, and nearly did the same in 2013.

Jones has boosted SMU's profile. The Mustangs have a pretty, new stadium. They won three bowls between 1949 and 2008, and they've won three since 2009.

At the same time, this reeks of stagnation, and if you stay at the same level for long enough, you risk falling into Glen Mason Territory, in which you raise a fanbase's expectations, then fail to ever exceed them. Eventually fans get bored with seven wins, even if they didn't experience seven wins one time between 1985 and 2008.

TL;DR

Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

2014 F/+ ranking and record: 127 (1-11)

5-year recruiting ranking: 73

Biggest strength: The offensive line could be legitimately strong

Biggest question mark: Everything else! This team was terrible for most of last season

Biggest 2015 game: Anything winnable, but we'll say Tulsa (Oct. 31).

In one sentence: Chad Morris and an energetic staff will try to turn around a program that stumbled, then completely flatlined; this will take time, but the Mustangs will at least be fun to watch.

It was taking a lot of energy to maintain SMU's 2009-12 pace, and I was looking at SMU's 2013 slippage in the wrong light. Instead of wondering about whether Jones would be able to engineer another breakthrough, we should have been wondering how long Jones was going to avoid collapse.

2013 was the harbinger. Yes, there were close losses, and yes, SMU nearly derailed UCF's AAC title run. But there was also a near-loss to Montana State and losses by a combined 94 points to Texas A&M, TCU, and Houston. The offense was given life by quarterback Garrett Gilbert and offensive coordinator Hal Mumme, but both left. Meanwhile, despite decent recruiting and a solid number of former three-star recruits, the defense had no ready-made playmakers.

When you run out of energy, your attention to detail slips first. Players stop developing, and you either don't notice deficiencies as quickly or can't do anything about them. And in a game with small margins for error, slippage turns into a freefall.

Jones seemed to realize it but couldn't do anything in time. After losing 45-0 to Baylor, then losing 43-6 to what turned out to be an awful North Texas, Jones resigned nine days into the 2014 season.

Tom Mason did what he could, but there was nothing Urban Meyer could have done to salvage the season. SMU rebounded from historically awful to simply bad, and the Mustangs avoided a winless campaign with a victory over UConn in the finale.

The final chapter of Jones' SMU tenure was unfortunate. He inherited a program that ranked in the 80s and 90s in F/+ and hadn't been to a bowl since 1984, and he dragged the Mustangs into the 50s and 60s and produced four consecutive bowl bids. But his final SMU team was far worse than what Phil Bennett had been producing, and while he didn't leave his successor a program worse off than the one he inherited, he didn't leave one that was much better.

2. #PonyUpTempo

When we talk about a program losing energy, we're not speaking about the style of play. We're usually talking about year-to-year momentum, recruiting, facilities upgrades, et cetera.

We don't know that new head coach Chad Morris will reestablish that. But while we wait, it doesn't hurt to play an on-field style that is as energetic as it can be.

We got to know Morris' offense well. A Texas high school head coach from 1994-2009, Morris showed up on Todd Graham's staff at Tulsa in 2010 and boosted the Golden Hurricane's offense from 71st in Off. S&P+ to 15th. He moved on to Clemson, inherited an offense that had ranked 79th, 41st, and 71st over the previous three years and jolted it to 25th, 14th, and 12th. Clemson went from averaging 7.3 wins per season from 2008-10 to 10.5 in Morris' four years.

Morris is committed to tempo über alles. He knows what to do with a mobile quarterback, and he knows the smashmouth spread.

The modern elements added by Morris include spread alignments, the forward pass, motion, and tempo. The brilliance of the triple option is that it's a self-contained concept with built-in answers for any potential problem. Morris doesn't have any single concepts quite that simple or elegant, but in general he emphasizes a similar level of soundness in his offense.

Morris could try to have a million concepts to answer a million problems. But he would rather contain multiple answers within the same concepts. He can still use diversity -- of formations, personnel groupings, or options within a play -- but focuses on fully mastering a few versatile plans of attack.

The description "basketball on grass" is apt, but in a literal sense. It captures how the offense becomes more about getting the ideal matchups and executing options, as in basketball, rather than out-guessing the opponent. The lightning tempo utilized by [Gus] Malzahn and Morris further allows for this simplicity.

Clemson's offense trailed off in 2014 thanks to severe turnover. Still, he proved all he could as a coordinator.

Now we find out if he's also a good head coach. He has said and done all the right things, and lord knows he should find more than enough pieces to complement his spread offense in the birthplace of the spread, but being a successful college head coach requires a specific set of skills, and we never know who doesn't possess those.

It should be fun finding out, though.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 127
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
31-Aug	at Baylor	10	0-45	L	4%	-42.0	0%
6-Sep	at North Texas	125	6-43	L	9%	-31.4	0%
20-Sep	Texas A&M	42	6-58	L	1%	-54.2	0%
27-Sep	TCU	6	0-56	L	9%	-31.4	0%
4-Oct	at East Carolina	61	24-45	L	32%	-10.9	1%
18-Oct	Cincinnati	47	3-41	L	10%	-30.4	0%
25-Oct	Memphis	41	10-48	L	16%	-23.7	0%
8-Nov	at Tulsa	117	28-38	L	21%	-18.9	17%
15-Nov	South Florida	123	13-14	L	35%	-8.7	28%
22-Nov	at Central Florida	60	7-53	L	5%	-39.2	0%
28-Nov	Houston	73	9-35	L	25%	-16.0	1%
6-Dec	at Connecticut	119	27-20	W	55%	3.1	73%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	15.5	123	34.7	105
Points Per Game	11.1	128	41.3	127

3. Technically, it got better

The SMU of September was as bad as any college team has been in recent times. A brutal schedule didn't help -- the Mustangs faced Baylor, Texas A&M, and TCU before October 1 -- but only opponents' mercy kept them as close on the scoreboard as they were ... and they were not close on the scoreboard.

It got better, though!

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 6% (average score: Opp 51, SMU 3)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 4 games): 20% (average score: Opp 43, SMU 16)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 4 games): 30% (average score: Opp 31, SMU 14)

By November, SMU was playing at something approximating a top-90 or top-100 level. The Mustangs still lost to bad teams (Tulsa, USF) and got smoked by UCF, but a) improvement is improvement, whether you're good or not, and b) SMU played well in the finale. That's something, right?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.70	124	IsoPPP+	75.3	121
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.8%	118	Succ. Rt. +	86.3	117
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	37.1	128	Def. FP+	92.9	127
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	2.9	127	Redzone S&P+	88.8	98
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.6		ACTUAL	30	+3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	127	119	115	121
RUSHING	121	78	77	74
PASSING	114	127	122	127
Standard Downs		111	104	115
Passing Downs		123	118	120

Q1 Rk	126	1st Down Rk	126
Q2 Rk	113	2nd Down Rk	128
Q3 Rk	126	3rd Down Rk	126
Q4 Rk	92

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Matt Davis	6'0, 209	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9452	89	164	855	3	5	54.3%	19	10.4%	4.1
Garrett Krstich	6'3, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	99	181	855	2	7	54.7%	15	7.7%	4.1
Neal Burcham	6'3, 213	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8405	27	48	158	0	2	56.3%	6	11.1%	2.0
Kolney Cassel					15	37	156	1	0	40.5%	0	0.0%	4.2
Darrel Colbert, Jr.	5'11, 196	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8242
Ben Hicks	6'2, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8560

4. Who leads?

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How quickly can a new staff change the relationship between potential and production? Because while SMU's personnel seems to have the former (at least, if you think recruiting rankings hold merit, and they do), there's almost none of the latter.

Four SMU quarterbacks threw at least 37 passes. Three return, and two boasted strong recruiting rankings in high school. All of them stunk. Matt Davis, a former four-star Texas A&M signee, showed the most potential, rushing for 8.1 yards per (non-sack) carry and producing passing stats that were at least no worse than anybody else's. But of the four QBs, none averaged more than 4.2 yards per pass attempt. (Anything under about 6.0 is pretty bad; 4.2 is horrendous.)

Davis emerged from spring ball as the likely starter, fending off well-regarded freshman Ben Hicks. (Neal Burcham, another of last year's starters, missed most of 2014 with an elbow injury, then tore his ACL in February.) And in theory, Davis has tools Morris will know how to employ. His mobility is a strength, and Morris will likely give him a lot of easy pitches to the sidelines.

June Jones' passing game was never particularly efficient, and that should change under Morris. But Davis' talent is unclear, and while his receivers come in all shapes, sizes, and degrees of athleticism, SMU's success will be derived from whether they're actually any good.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Matt Davis	QB	6'0, 209	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9452	89	721	4	8.1	6.0	59.6%	8	5
Prescott Line	RB	6'0, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8245	78	256	4	3.3	2.5	23.1%	1	0
K.C. Nlemchi	RB	6'0, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8200	47	149	1	3.2	4.4	23.4%	1	1
Kevin Pope	RB					34	105	0	3.1	2.5	23.5%	2	1
Garrett Krstich	QB	6'3, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	25	142	0	5.7	3.4	52.0%	3	2
Luke Seeker	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	24	75	0	3.1	3.5	16.7%	0	0
Darius Durall	RB	5'9, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7611	12	-2	0	-0.2	3.9	8.3%	1	1
Daniel Gresham	RB	5'10, 228	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8662
Xavier Jones	RB	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026
Braeden West	RB	5'10, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Darius Joseph	WR-Y	5'11, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7891	86	54	379	62.8%	21.1%	52.3%	4.4	-277	4.4	39.9
Der'rikk Thompson	WR-X					71	31	512	43.7%	17.4%	54.9%	7.2	104	7.2	53.9
Stephen Nelson	WR-Z					41	28	200	68.3%	10.0%	53.7%	4.9	-135	4.9	21.1
Deion Sanders, Jr.	WR-H	5'7, 174	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7829	35	23	188	65.7%	8.6%	65.7%	5.4	-89	5.5	19.8
Nate Halverson	WR	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	28	17	165	60.7%	6.9%	39.3%	5.9	-43	5.1	17.4
K.C. Nlemchi	RB	6'0, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8200	20	16	131	80.0%	4.9%	65.0%	6.6	-55	6.4	13.8
Cedric Lancaster	WR-X	5'9, 169	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8094	20	12	93	60.0%	4.9%	60.0%	4.7	-54	4.6	9.8
Prescott Line	RB	6'0, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8245	17	10	41	58.8%	4.2%	41.2%	2.4	-82	2.7	4.3
Shelby Walker	WR-H	6'0, 165	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8277	16	7	68	43.8%	3.9%	43.8%	4.3	-24	4.2	7.2
Jeremiah Gaines	TE	6'2, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610	15	4	97	26.7%	3.7%	53.3%	6.5	36	6.2	10.2
Ryheem Malone	WR-Y	5'8, 172	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7611	14	5	37	35.7%	3.4%	64.3%	2.6	-33	2.7	3.9
Kevin Pope	RB				NR	13	8	26	61.5%	3.2%	69.2%	2.0	-72	2.2	2.7
Daijuan Stewart	WR-H				NR	10	5	32	50.0%	2.5%	40.0%	3.2	-32	3.1	3.4
Darius Durall	RB	5'9, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7611	6	4	15	66.7%	1.5%	50.0%	2.5	-33	2.1	1.6
Luke Seeker	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	NR	NR	5	3	6	60.0%	1.2%	20.0%	1.2	-31	1.1	0.6
Aaron Stafford	WR				NR	3	1	6	33.3%	0.7%	66.7%	2.0	-8	1.7	0.6
Courtland Sutton	WR	6'4, 215	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8326	2	2	27	100.0%	0.5%	100.0%	13.5	4	NR	2.8
Arrius Holleman	WR	6'3, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000

5. Who catches?

We know Darius Joseph can be an efficient piece in the right system; he caught 103 balls with a 72 percent catch rate in 2013. We know Deion Sanders Jr. has a return man's skill set and could be a fun weapon out of the slot. We knowredshirt freshman Courtland Sutton had a nice spring and brings a solid recruiting pedigree.

We know there are four other receivers who were deemed three-star recruits by either Rivals or the 247Sports Composite.

And we know that Davis can make plays with his feet, and that running backs Prescott Line, K.C. Niemchi, and 2014 star recruit Daniel Gresham bring girth.

We also know that the potential is theoretical. In theory, it could be strong, and in theory, Morris and offensive coordinator Joe Craddock (Morris' graduate assistant at Clemson) should be able to figure out how to employ them. But it takes a leap of faith; these players were either on the sidelines in 2014 or doing no damage on the field.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.8	3.14	3.11	35.4%	71.9%	18.8%	65.0	9.6%	6.9%
Rank	36	39	84	100	32	60	122	124	55

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Taylor Lasecki	C	6'2, 294	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	36
Kris Weeks	RT	6'5, 314	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8057	25
Chauncey Briggs	LT	6'6, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7951	19
Evan Brown	RG	6'3, 300	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8111	10
Daniel McCarty	LG	6'3, 284	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8032	9
Seaver Myers	LT	6'5, 306	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8559	5
William Barns	C	6'1, 284	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7948	1
Christian Chamagua	RT	6'5, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7908	1
Travis Fister	OL	6'2, 270	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8124	0
Braylon Hyder	OL	6'2, 335	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8191
Bryce Wilds	OL	6'7, 305	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026
Marcus McNeil	OL	6'3, 300	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7995

6. You can build around this line

Relatively -- and we're speaking quite relatively here -- the offensive line was an SMU strength. It wasn't particularly good, but SMU did rank 36th in Adj. Line Yards, 32nd in Power Success Rate, 60th in Stuff Rate, and 55th in Passing Downs Sack Rate. When you compare these stats to those of the offense as a whole, they're magnificent.

Considering the line returns everybody from last year's two-deep, including three-year starting center Taylor Lasecki and eight players with starting experience (106 career starts), this could move from "relative strength" to "strength." And if Davis (or the quarterback of choice) has a clean pocket, Morris should figure out how to get the ball to playmakers.

This probably won't be a good offense, but the combination of Morris and competence at quarterback and offensive line should result in significant improvement.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.98	121	IsoPPP+	74.9	125
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.5%	124	Succ. Rt. +	82.0	124
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.4	119	Off. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	92	Redzone S&P+	85.5	120
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.9		ACTUAL	16.0	+0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	122	125	124	125
RUSHING	117	120	120	122
PASSING	109	127	122	124
Standard Downs		124	123	124
Passing Downs		119	114	119

Q1 Rk	113	1st Down Rk	112
Q2 Rk	126	2nd Down Rk	104
Q3 Rk	72	3rd Down Rk	127
Q4 Rk	101

7. Insanely bad

Van Malone spent the last three seasons at the helm of a mean Oklahoma State secondary. He has been an FBS defensive backs coach since 2004 -- mostly with teams known for up-tempo spread offenses -- and he coached with Morris at Tulsa in 2010. He will likely bring the same type of mentality to this defense that Phil Bennett has at Baylor: be aggressive and efficient and try to force turnovers.

Greedy defenses are natural complements to up-tempo offenses; if you can break serve a few times, it doesn't matter if you are giving up big plays along the way.

We don't know how long it will take Malone to find weapons on this defense. Lord knows there weren't any impressive pieces on last year's D, a horrific unit that redefined the concept of "relative strengths."

SMU's defense ranked 35th in Def. S&P+ in 2012. It fell in 2013 following the loss of Margus Hunt and other difference-makers, then the bottom fell out. The pass rush was the closest thing to a strength, as it was only bad and not one of the nation's worst, but the secondary couldn't stop anybody, and the run defense was indeed one of the nation's worst.

Youth and injuries can explain part of this -- there were three freshmen and three sophomores among last year's top nine linemen, and quite a few linebackers and defensive backs missed time with injury -- but SMU had the fifth-worst Success Rate+ and fourth-worst IsoPPP+ ranking in the country. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	72.2	3.66	4.15	44.4%	67.9%	12.6%	72	2.5%	6.0%
Rank	128	127	126	119	68	126	107	114	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zach Wood	DE	6'3, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8104	12	29.0	4.0%	6.0	4.0	0	0	0	1
Mason Gentry	DE	6'6, 292	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	12	28.5	3.9%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Darrian Wright	NT					12	19.5	2.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Justin Lawler	DE	6'3, 254	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7901	12	17.5	2.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew McCleneghen	NT	6'5, 265	Sr.	NR	NR	12	17.0	2.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zelt Minor	DE	6'2, 282	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8387	8	9.0	1.2%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jarvis Pruitt	DE	6'3, 254	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	10	7.5	1.0%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Spencer Hollie	DE	6'4, 340	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8052	7	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Elie Nabushosi	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8227	6	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Smith	DE	6'2, 249	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8057	11	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Scott	DE	6'4, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8381
Chris Biggurs	DT	6'3, 245	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8217
Hunter Thedford	DE	6'7, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7979
Delontae Scott	DE	6'5, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Stephon Sanders	SLB					12	56.5	7.8%	8.0	2.5	0	3	0	0
Jonathan Yenga	MLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8457	12	49.0	6.8%	4.5	2.0	0	3	0	0
Kevin Pope	BUCK					11	38.0	5.2%	2.0	1.0	0	2	2	0
Robert Seals	WLB	6'3, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7819	12	34.5	4.8%	5.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
John Bordano	BUCK					11	33.5	4.6%	2.0	1.0	1	1	1	0
Cameron Nwosu	MLB					12	17.5	2.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derek Longoria	SLB	6'1, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	12	14.0	1.9%	1.0	0.0	0	1	2	0
Caleb Tuiasosopo	BUCK	6'2, 246	Sr.	NR	NR	11	13.0	1.8%	1.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Beau Barnes	WLB					11	12.5	1.7%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jackson Mitchell	LB	6'0, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7644	12	11.5	1.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jordan Miller	LB					11	10.5	1.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Horton	BUCK	6'2, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	6	8.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Rhone	LB	6'0, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	12	7.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
RC Cox	LB	6'1, 215	So.	NR	NR	5	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dylan Dickman	LB	6'0, 222	So.	NR	NR	1	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Carlos Carroll	LB	6'2, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8219	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Inoke Ngalo	LB	5'11, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8187
Jordon Williams	LB	6'1, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Mitchell Kaufman	LB	6'3, 217	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826

8. Injuries + garbage time = everybody plays!

Seven linemen, 13 linebackers, and nine defensive backs made at least 7.5 tackles last year. And of those 29, 21 return, including all but one lineman and defensive back. There is turnover at linebacker, but that's where the most people got playing time.

This is a young coaching staff. Malone graduated from Houston in 2002, linebackers coach Archie McDaniel from Texas A&M in 2005, and secondary coach Jess Loepp from Central Oklahoma in 2000. Only defensive line coach Buddy Wyatt has major experience. Morris went for hungry over seasoned, and while that can work (the quintessential example: Jim Harbaugh's Stanford staff), there might be a bit of a learning curve.

But if Malone and company want to be aggressive, they might have a few pieces: end Zach Wood had four sacks, linebackers Jonathan Yenga and Robert Seals combined for 10 tackles for loss and four pass break-ups, and safety Darrion Richardson combined three tackles for loss with five passes defensed. Plus, youngsters and reserves like cornerback Jesse Montgomery and end Zelt Minor hinted at potential. And the incoming recruiting class might produce a couple of early contributors.

Still, almost none of these players was successful in an SMU uniform last year. This will take a while.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Hayden Greenbauer	SS					12	63.5	8.8%	2	0	1	0	0	0
Darrion Richardson	FS	6'0, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8079	12	56.5	7.8%	3	1	1	4	1	0
Horace Richardson	CB	6'0, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	9	25.0	3.5%	1	0	2	3	0	0
Ajee Montes	CB	5'11, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7968	6	22.5	3.1%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
JR Richardson	CB	5'10, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7844	9	16.5	2.3%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Jesse Montgomery	CB	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	11	16.5	2.3%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Troy Castle	CB	5'11, 205	Sr.	NR	NR	12	14.5	2.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shakiel Randolph	CB	6'4, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	9	14.0	1.9%	0	0	1	8	0	0
A.J. Justice	SS	6'1, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	12	12.5	1.7%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Trey Washington	DB					3	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Waheed	DB					6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jackson Koonce	6'1, 170	So.	74	40.8	3	14	14	37.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Cody Rademacher			33	55.9	4	1	12.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cody Rademacher			12-12	6-9	66.7%	3-8	37.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Deion Sanders, Jr.	KR	5'7, 174	Jr.	37	20.5	0
Aaron Stafford	KR			9	20.1	0
Daijuan Stewart	PR			9	8.3	0
Cedric Lancaster	PR	5'9, 169	So.	3	-4.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	102
Field Goal Efficiency	115
Punt Return Efficiency	127
Kick Return Efficiency	42
Punt Efficiency	90
Kickoff Efficiency	4
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	92

9. Building around Deion Jr.

Deion Sanders Jr. wasn't incredibly explosive as a kick returner, but he was able to break past the 25-yard line on kickoffs. That's the only known positive for this special teams unit other than what appears to be a pretty good kick coverage unit.

Jackson Koonce should probably improve at punter, but we don't know much about punt returns or place-kicking. The best Morris can hope for is a unit that treads water and doesn't make things worse. And maybe a huge Sanders return or two.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
4-Sep	Baylor	10
12-Sep	North Texas	125
19-Sep	at TCU	6
26-Sep	James Madison	NR
3-Oct	East Carolina	61
8-Oct	at Houston	73
24-Oct	at South Florida	123
31-Oct	Tulsa	117
6-Nov	Temple	67
14-Nov	at Navy	44
21-Nov	Tulane	93
28-Nov	at Memphis	41

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-12.8% (82)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	86 / 73
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-14 / -10.7
2014 TO Luck/Game	-1.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	1.2 (-0.2)

10. Better? Maybe. More fun? Yes.

The offense will be better and infinitely more fun. The defense won't be worse. That means SMU will be ahead of where it was for most of last year.

Even if Morris doesn't turn out to be as good a head coach as he is a coordinator, he has an energetic staff that should recruit well by AAC standards, and his own prowess should ensure some ticket sales and shootout wins here and there.

But "ahead of where it was last year" might mean an F/+ ranking in the 100s or 110s. Energy can make a difference, but I struggle to see a major turnaround.

Luckily for SMU, there are still opportunities. North Texas won't be much better, and two 2014 opponents, Tulsa and USF, have pulled off similar nosedives. When you only won one game, two wins represents improvement, and I think SMU will reach or eclipse that. Just don't set the bar higher than four.

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