James Harden has led the injury-riddled Rockets further than anyone expected, but will he finally bring them deep into the playoffs after two unsuccessful trips?
Let's rewind nine months. Say I told you that the Rockets would lose Chandler Parsons to the rival Mavericks, trade Omer Asik and see Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones miss over half the year with injuries. Say I told you that Houston's big man rotation for several games was Donatas Motiejunas, Josh Smith and Joey Dorsey. Say I told you that Patrick Beverley didn't get better, suffered a season-ending injury and the only backup to him was Jason Terry. How many wins do you think Houston would have?
Much fewer than 56, that's for sure. The Rockets have put together an incredible year given the circumstances, thanks largely to James Harden. Harden may not win MVP, but he's had an MVP-caliber season dragging Houston to the No. 2 seed in a loaded Western Conference. He's somehow gobbled up a larger share of Houston's offense while scoring and passing at a higher level than ever. He's dragged his team to countless victories. He's even locked in on the defensive end, eliminating 85 percent of the embarrassing breakdowns that caused one fan to put together an 11-minute defensive lowlight reel.
With Harden starring, Jones and Howard healthy, a fortified defense led by shrewd signing Trevor Ariza and a deep bench bolstered by midseason acquisitions Corey Brewer and Josh Smith, the Rockets enter the postseason with as good a chance of going deep as they've had in over 15 years.
How they beat you
The Rockets' offense is so Harden-centric, but it works because he's as good a passer as he is a scorer. You can build an entire offense around Harden's isolation ability because opponents can't help too much in one-on-one situations. Harden has the vision and patience to create plays like this for Houston's shooters and cutters.
And if you play Harden to score, he'll burn you. Harden is fifth in scoring efficiency as the ball-handler in pick and rolls and sixth in scoring efficiency on isolations, per Synergy Sports Technology, yet he's doing it on significantly more possessions in both categories than his peers. He doesn't need a running start to get points, but the Rockets often provide one anyway with side-to-side and Princeton-like action leading into a pick and roll.
The less-discussed key to the Rockets' season has been their defensive improvement. Houston ranked in the middle of the pack last season because its perimeter players too often didn't funnel ball-handlers the right way. The Rockets adjusted by dialing up more pressure and requiring big men to slide higher up the court to stop the ball. The Ariza/Chandler Parsons swap made a huge difference, as did the addition of Corey Brewer off the bench. Both wings can guard multiple positions and use their length to disrupt attempts to pass out of traps. The backside rotations often don't matter because it takes opponents so long to move the ball away from the initial pressure.
How you beat them
Stopping Harden is difficult, but it can be done. The Phoenix Suns put on a clinic during a late-season win in Houston, though it helped that Howard didn't play. Bigger wings like P.J. Tucker give Harden problems as long as they don't take any of Harden's bait. Whoever guards Harden will need to remember two things: They can't stop Harden alone and they must be willing to allow a couple easier looks from the field if it means keeping him off the foul line. The good news is that the Mavericks don't have a wing stopper that should scare Houston.
You can also expect teams to take one more step off Houston's three-point shooters and baseline cutters to load to Harden, especially on those 1-4 flat isolations. They'll live with Harden making difficult passes because few of Houston's perimeter players have shown they're both shooting and driving threats. Look for opponents to aggressively run players like Ariza and Terry and off the line, particularly in transition. Meanwhile, they'll live with Smith, Brewer, Jones and Pablo Prigioni firing away. The absence of Beverley could hurt because he at least can sneak into the lane on those closeouts.
Most important player
It's obviously Harden, but we know what he can do. The more interesting question: What can we expect from Dwight Howard? The Rockets played well without him, but they're clearly a better team with him, especially if he continues to accept a secondary role as he promised before returning. The Rockets lost just twice with him in the lineup after he returned in late March, even though he was on a minutes limit. Both losses were to the Spurs.
He's become the cherry on top of the Rockets' sundae. His rim protection makes Houston's defense even more overwhelming because he can erase mistakes. His rebounding fixed the Rockets' one big defensive issue. He's been more willing to run pick and roll than he was in past years, which adds a critical extra dimension to an offense that otherwise becomes predictable. And if nothing else is working, he's able to score in the post like he did against the Blazers in last year's playoffs.
The Rockets become even more dangerous if Howard can do all those things while still staying out of Harden's way.
Chef Harden with the pot
There's bound to be lots of disagreement on this topic, so let me just say I'm a fan of Harden's "stir the pot" celebration.
It's way better than the gun holsters thing Russell Westbrook does.
Source SBNation.com - All Posts http://ift.tt/1FOEoZg
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