The Lakers really need to keep their pick this season. That means they really need to start losing.
Confession time: I'm completely obsessed with the Lakers' situation. As everyone knows, L.A. keeps its 2015 first-round pick only if it lands in the top five. Otherwise, it goes to the 76ers via the Steve Nash and Brandon Knight trades. If the Lakers keep the pick, they owe Philly their 2016 pick, protected only in the top three.
As everyone also knows, the Lakers are bereft of talent. Julius Randle is the most promising player on the roster, but he'll effectively be a rookie next season after missing most of this campaign with a horrific leg injury. Kobe Bryant is under contract for one more year, but he's played 41 games over two seasons, or 25 percent of the available contests. Jordan Clarkson looks like a keeper. Tarik Black is a rotation player. And, uh, yeah. That's about it.
In theory, if the Lakers keep their pick and take someone like Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, Justise Winslow or D'Angelo Russell, they can use their nearly $30 million of cap space to add 1-2 major free agents or trade acquisitions and come back in 2015-16 a much better team. In that scenario, whether they made the playoffs or not, they'd be way too good to keep a top-3 pick and likely land around 10th-worst in the league if all went wrong. Chances are, depending on Kobe's health and how the new players work out, they'd give up a pick in the teens.
In theory, if the Lakers lose their pick to Philly this year ... they'll still use that $30 million of cap space to bring in veterans! Why? Wouldn't they tank another season to get a second high pick (after Randle, who was No. 7 in 2014), this one guaranteed to stay with L.A.? Especially when you consider the free agent class of 2016 plus the exploding salary cap?
A few things appear to be blocking the way of another purposefully down year:
1. This might be Kobe's final season as a Laker. The franchise is about nothing if not legacy and success. It'd be really odd if they tanked the final season of perhaps the franchise's greatest star.
2. Jim Buss has pressure from his sister. Jeanie Buss has indicated that there is a plan in place to replace Jim, the team's basketball boss, if he doesn't turn the team back around quickly. There's not a lot of time for Jim to get things on the right track.
3. The allure of signing actual starter-quality NBA players is going to be too great this summer, especially with Rajon Rondo certainly on the market and Kevin Love potentially joining him. Plus DeAndre Jordan (double-blow by hurting the Clippers!) and a host of other intriguing guys. The Lakers are rightfully and perpetually confident about their ability to be great. That will likely be the case when Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak huddle in June.
That's why landing the pick this year is so important to L.A. If not now, perhaps the only thing the Lakers will have to show for this rare horrid stretch is Randle. So let's check in on what the Lakers need to do to keep the pick.
The Knicks and Timberwolves will almost certainly finish with the two worst records. All the drama is with the Sixers, Lakers and Magic. Philly has 18 wins with six games to go. Their magic number to finish as the third-worst team is five (that's combined losses and Lakers wins). The situation is similar between L.A. and Orlando: the Lakers have 20 wins with eight games to go, and their magic number is seven. Assuming Orlando goes 2-5 to close the season, L.A. can go 3-5 and maintain the fourth worst record. If Orlando closes 1-6, L.A. needs to go no better than 2-6. If Orlando loses out, L.A. needs to finish 1-7 to stay worse.
If the Lakers finish in sole possession of the fourth-worst record, they'll have an 83 percent probability of keeping their pick in the draft and it would land anywhere from No. 1-5, with No. 5 being most likely. If the Lakers are too good down the stretch and finish with the fifth-worst record, their odds of keeping the pick fall to 55 percent. If L.A. and Orlando finish with identical records that are better than Philly's, a coin flip would decide whether the Lakers had an 83 percent or 55 percent probability of keeping the pick. (If you work that out, it's a total 69 percent probability if the Lakers tied with Orlando.)
In other words, there's a lot riding on the remaining Lakers games. If the Lakers don't lose right now, their rebuild is very likely to be hampered.
Source SBNation.com - All Posts http://ift.tt/1F93MbM
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