Noel still shows his inexperience, but a year recovering from injury and some early struggles have given way to his rise on the defensive end.
Philadelphia 76ers big man Nerlens Noel was always going to make his name on the defensive end. A candidate to be the No. 1 pick before injury concerns dropped him down to No. 6, Noel's potential on that end of the floor made scouts and executives salivate.
Unable to play during his rookie year as a result of those health issues, Noel has been trying to catch up in his sophomore season while starring for the 76ers. There aren't many teams in the league that could afford to give Noel the opportunity to learn and grow on the fly, but Philadelphia's been willing to risk present-day losses for long-term benefits.
And while it took Noel a few months to get his feet under him, it appears the fruits of Philadelphia's patience are beginning to bear fruit. Noel has blossomed since a full-time move to the center position, quickly reaching the potential that many had envisioned for him out of Kentucky.
The improvement has got people around the 76ers excited, as Noel's proving to be the one bright spot in an otherwise ugly season.
"I am so proud of his evolution and development," coach Brett Brown said Wednesday to Philly.com. "He's really starting to grow as a leader outside of what we see on the court."
A rise after the trades
Noel's evolution on and off the court has been exciting to see, but it's on the defensive end where he's forging his reputation.
Over the first few months of the season, Noel showed flashes of his exciting potential, but struggled to string together quality performances on one of the league's worst teams. Trading away key cogs like Michael Carter-Williams and K.J. McDaniels could've made things worse, but instead he's taken the extra pressure and thrived. Noel has averaged 12.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 blocks and 1.8 steals over his past nine games.
The Sixers have only gone 2-7 in that span, but Noel's impact on the defensive end isn't hard to see. While Philadelphia's on-off numbers with Noel are relatively even over the course of the season, the team has been a few points better per 100 possessions over the past nine games when he's playing. That's entirely because of his work defensively, where the Sixers allowed 105.7 points per 100 possessions with him out and just 97.3 points per 100 possessions with him in, per NBA.com.
The news isn't as rosy on the offensive end, where Noel is still developing most his game, but even there the improvement is obvious. Over the recent stretch, he's shot 51 percent from the floor and earned nearly five free throw attempts per game, up from 44 percent and 2.3 attempts, respectively.
Those kinds of incremental improvements are exciting to see, particularly given how much better he can get on both ends.
There's more room to grow
While his defense is fantastic in a lot of areas, the numbers reveal significant room for improvement.
One place where Noel has thrived throughout the season is defending ball handlers on the pick-and-roll, according to Synergy Sports. Noel is a rare breed of big man who can step out of the paint and face up against ball handlers. He's allowed just 0.732 points per possession while taking on those situations frequently.
Where Noel hasn't been so great is dealing with guys who directly try to score on him. While he piles up blocks and steals, Synergy rates him as below-average against isolation plays, post-ups and spot-up jumpers. Part of that likely has to do with his situation, since Noel always has to consider how to cover for less talented teammates. But it shows an obvious area where Noel can take his defense to the next level.
Filling out physically, something that's already been happening during his first year-plus in the league, should help significantly. One of the primary concerns surrounding Noel, beyond the injuries, was how his wiry frame would hold up against the league's big men. He's responded by holding his own, although Synergy rates his numbers around the basket as below average.
Still, given Noel's length and defensive instincts, he'll become a fantastic rim protector in time as he grows stronger and more comfortable throwing his weight around. The blocks show he has the instincts to make plays if he can just polish things up.
Opponents have found success by posting-up Noel, scoring 1.097 points per possession on those plays, per Synergy. But it's the kind of thing that will be solved by playing bigger and smarter.
That puts Noel in an exciting position, as he's clearly the cornerstone of the 76ers for now and is showing signs he deserves that label. Even though he's playing on a struggling team with similarly inexperienced teammates, he's managed to hold his own and make progress, something many didn't expect coming off such a long break.
It's easy to see why Brown and others are getting on board. The 76ers have a lot of work to do, but they should have one of the game's best defensive big men soon.
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