With five losses in seven games, Manchester City head into the derby in wretched form. But it's not losses to Burnley and Crystal Palace that ended their season.
Let's start with the facts, shall we? Manchester City have lost five of their last seven games in all competitions, while Manchester United have won their last five. City have exited the Champions League and blown their title defence, while United won away at Anfield and seem to have secured themselves serenely into the promised land of the top four. Indeed, they're up to third, while City's stumble (more serious than a wobble, but not quite a full-blown slump) has knocked them down to fourth, behind United. Their cross-town rivals. Who they play on Sunday afternoon.
Please, take a second to wipe the narrative off your face.
It's been a fairly remarkable switch in fortunes, and one that doesn't have an easily identifiable cause. For United's part, opinion is split as to who gets the credit, whether this is the long-awaited 'click' that Louis van Gaal has been promising, or whether a couple of fortuitous injuries has forced the obstinate Dutchman into picking everybody in their best positions. A bit of both, maybe. Either way, everybody's smiling. Except Ryan Giggs.
But the really interesting case is City, because those five defeats have been markedly different in character, and come against quite a spread of opponents. They've been overpowered by Barcelona, twice; outthunderbolted by Liverpool, once; and then been blunt and unfortunate against Burnley and Crystal Palace. All things that, in isolation, can happen without there being any underlying malaise. All things that, in a row and with rivals sailing past in the outside lane, look like the nascent stages of something big and serious. Possibly even crisis-shaped.
A proper crisis would take a continued slip, and would see City sucked down into the hell that is Not The Champions League. Quite what that would do to the Project isn't immediately obvious: United were able to leverage their name and their gargantuan cash reserves into capturing a pretty decent manager and a massive injection of talent. City, who don't make as much money and so can't spend as much while staying within the bounds of Financial Fair Play, might not be so easily able to absorb a season down with the proles.
If City lose the derby — and at this point we must remind ourselves that while form points towards United, City still have some very good players and Tony Valencia will start at right back — then Liverpool and Tottenham, level in fifth and six, will have an opportunity to cut the gap to four points with six games to go. After that, City's run-in includes a trip to White Hart Lane, as well as a potentially awkward visit to Swansea and a home game against Southampton on the last day of the season. It is just about possible to see something that looks like a Race for Fourth in there. If you squint, and tilt your head a bit.
More likely is that City right themselves, United and Arsenal's form cools a touch, and those three spend the rest of the jostling around in second, third and fourth. And if so, then City's recent league losses and the move from second to fourth will have been largely meaningless. In effect, sides chasing the title have two league positions: first and not-first.
When it came to the league, Manchester City's job last season was to win the thing, and they succeeded. This season, it was to defend the title, and (bar Chelsea apocalypse) they have failed. More to to the point, they failed (bar Chelsea apocalypse) on March 1, when the loss to Liverpool left them five points and a game behind Jose Mourinho's champions elect, who were having a day out at Wembley.
That Liverpool loss came a week after the first leg against Barcelona, and so in the space of seven days City went from being in two competitions to being effectively out of both. A long season, on the back of a World Cup, suddenly over. Perhaps it's no surprise that City's intensity has dimmed, just a shade; that their sharpness has been blunted. Come on lads, let's not-win the title in slightly more respectable fashion. Let's avoid some Champions League qualifying games next summer. Roar.
So while losing at home to Burnley and losing away to Alan Pardew is obviously quite embarrassing, City's real, relevant slip-ups came in January and early February. Having climbed all the way from not-first to first, they took three points from four games and went tumbling all the way back down again. That's what Manuel Pellegrini's end-of-season performance review should be focusing on; that's why they had to win at Anfield. Everything since then is just an extended outro. A derby loss would sting for all the obvious reasons, but City's season was done before United pulled themselves together.
Source SBNation.com - All Posts http://ift.tt/1CCkJcL
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