The Clippers' great offense has been improved with a strong defense since the All-Star break, but do they have enough depth to make a serious postseason run?
For most of the season, it's been quite easy to take the Clippers for granted. Good team, fun to watch, no depth, probably won't make it out of the second round, etc., etc.
It didn't help that they suffered injuries to key players like Jamal Crawford and Blake Griffin, or that the front office response has been to plug in whatever former Celtic happened to be available at the moment. We've seen their act for the last four years, and while they're often entertaining, they just don't seem to have enough to make a long postseason run.
There were extenuating circumstances all around, but Tuesday's game with the Warriors was instructive on a number of levels. Golden State sat Draymond Green, while Steve Kerr deployed irregular lineups. The Clippers were returning from an East Coast trip and about to head out on another three-game swing. Still, Doc Rivers played his starting five as a group as much as possible, with each starter playing around 40 minutes. The Warriors were playing for pride, while the Clippers were playing for playoff positioning.
The Clippers took a big lead in the first quarter, saw it get whittled away in the second and then fell under a huge Stephen Curry barrage in the fourth. It meant little in the grand scheme of things to Golden State, until it started to feel like it meant everything. The final result revealed everything that makes people wary about the Clippers chances in the playoffs, but also showed again why they can't be taken lightly.
Their offense has been brilliant all year, but in recent weeks it's entered the stratosphere. So much so that Doc Rivers labeled it "beautiful to watch" after a win over Boston on Sunday. Notoriously hard-to-please point guard Chris Paul called their execution, "amazing."
"We're passing up good shots for great shots," Paul said. "Obviously with Blake back that makes us that much more dangerous. He's one of the best passers on the team. And then when he's scoring, you just have to pick your poison."
Take J.J. Redick, for example. He averaged nearly 21 points per game in March while shooting 50 percent from the floor, 43 percent from behind the arc and a perfect 36-for-36 at the free throw line. (Redick has missed only one free throw since the start of the new year.)
"We have a really good rhythm right now," Redick said. "With the way teams load to the strong side, you really have to get to your second option, sometimes your third option, and that requires you to swing the ball from side to side. A lot of our possessions end with multiple passes on multiple sides.
"The other thing that's happened in this stretch is our first unit is getting stops. We get to go against a defense in transition, they're not as set. That creates a lot of problems. A defense has to make tough decisions. Do we stop Chris on the pick and roll and leave [DeAndre Jordan] to roll? Do we stop DJ on the roll and leave the weakside corner open? We have problems that we're creating offensively and making it tough on the defense."
The difference, as Redick noted, is that they've finally put it together on the defensive end as well. Their overall season numbers are decidedly middle of the pack, but since the All-Star break, the Clippers have allowed 99.8 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third behind Utah and Golden State. Their +7.5 net point differential is up there with the Warriors, Cavaliers and Spurs.
So, what's changed?
"Nothing," Rivers said. "From a coaching standpoint, that's good and bad. We haven't changed anything as far as schemes. I think our focus has changed and our commitment has changed. We were good last year toward the end, but we were better all year. The first half we were up and down. We have a great defensive night or a great defensive quarter, and now we're putting games together, and our guys are starting to enjoy it. I wish I could tell you why, but if you're going to do it, this is the right time."
The starting five has all the elements. In Paul, the Clippers have the platonic ideal of a modern point guard: a devastating scorer with peerless court vision and an unmatched feel for the game. Griffin is a monster forward whose highlight-reel dunks are augmented by a solid jumper and underrated passing skills.
Along with those two superstars are a full complement of role players. Redick and Matt Barnes are both enjoying the finest shooting seasons of their respective careers, and when all else fails, there's Jordan hovering near the basket waiting for the inevitable lob.
The bench ... well, the best thing that can be said about the bench is the starters are really, really good. The second-best thing you can say is that rotations get tighter and minutes get stretched in the postseason. Of course, the Clippers will need something from their reserves this spring, and it would help tremendously if Crawford can return to form. Ultimately, they will rise or fall on the backs of their starting five.
No five-man group has played as many minutes together as the Clippers' starters, and no five-man group has been as good offensively. Since Griffin returned from elbow surgery, they've been even better, outscoring opponents by an insane 40.8 points per 100 possessions entering Tuesday's showdown with Golden State.
That was a particularly damaging loss for the Clippers, who are in a tussle for home court advantage in the first round. Division winners get tiebreaker preferences, so the Clippers will have to finish with a better overall record than Memphis or Houston to sneak into the second or third spots.
Right now the Clippers are seeded fifth, but that's a weird technicality. If they finish with better record than Portland (currently fourth), they would get home court in the first round. They could also slide all the way down to sixth. (Please consult our guide for more. This gets confusing.)
The bottom line is the Clippers have a decent chance to start the playoffs with home court advantage and that's perfectly fine with Rivers, who feels that the advantage is most important in the first round. That would also put them on track to meet the Warriors in the second round, which is also fine with the coach. As he can tell you from his time coaching the Celtics, there's no point in delaying the inevitable.
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